Lok Sabha Election 2024: UBS reveals what BJP, NDA, or I.N.D.I.A. alliance's wins may mean for Indian economy

Lok Sabha Election 2024: The dates for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are out; the leading parties such as the BJP and the Congress have released their lists of candidates; and the first round of nomination will start from today. Amid such backdrop, brokerage UBS has come up with a report that highlights the economic scenarios that may arise if the BJP gets a majority, the NDA gets the majority, or the I.N.D.I.A. alliance gets the majority. UBS says that if the BJP gets the absolutely majority after the vote counting day on June 4, the roadmap of the developed India 2047 will be revealed; if the NDA alliance gets the absolute majority, reforms will continue but it will be difficult to take tough decisions. However, if none of the two happens and the I.N.D.I.A. alliance forms a weak coalition, the market may be worried about fiscal discipline. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are to be held in seven phases from April 19-June 1. Here we take you through the important findings from the report.
 
UBS says Lok Sabha Elections 2024 may have three consequences-  

1 - The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can alone have an absolute majority

2- The NationalDemocratic Alliance can get a complete majority 

3 - Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) can form a weak government.

In all three scenarios, UBS predicts what will happen to India's macro economic factors if either of parties forms the government-

If BJP alone gets an absolute majority

The party will reveal the roadmap for developed India 2047.

The agenda for the first 100 days of the government is decided.

The government will take tough decisions.

There will be focus on supply chain, clean energy, infra, and manufacturing.

If NDA gets complete majority

In that case, reforms will continue, but it will be difficult to take tough decisions.

If I.N.D.I.A. alliance forms weak government

The report says, if that happens, the implementation of reforms will be difficult.

The market may be worried about fiscal discipline.

Impact on India's Macro economic factors

If BJP gets absolute majority-

Fiscal deficit- Consolidated

10-year bond yield- Will go down

Inflation- Stable at 4 per cent-5 per cent

Rupee- Will remain strong

If NDA gets absolute majority 

Fiscal deficit- Consolidated but lesser than market expectations

10-year bond yield- Will go down

Inflation- In the range of 5 per cent-6 per cent

Rupee- Will remain stable

If I.N.D.I.A. gets absolute majority

Fiscal deficit- Market expects it will increase

10-year bond yield- Can go up

Inflation- Will be at 5 per cent-6 per cent, but the market will be worried

Rupee- Will remain weak in the beginning of the alliance's term