LIC: Insurance behemoth stock drops 16% over IPO price, net profit jumps 40% in FY22; Is it right time to accumulate?

In the first-ever quarterly result of LIC after being listed on the bourses last month, the insurance behemoth reported a 17 per cent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 2,409 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2022 against Rs 2,917 crore in the same quarter a year ago.  

On Wednesday's low price of Rs 811.50 per share, the counter has corrected more than 16% over the IPO price of Rs 949 per equity share. On their 52-week low, the shares have now dipped over 18% at the upper band of issue price. LIC shares were listed at a discount of 8.62 per cent at Rs 867.20 apiece on BSE over the issue price of Rs 949 a share. 

The total income of the insurer during the March quarter increased to Rs 2,12,230.41 crore, from Rs 1,90,098 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal, LIC said in a regulatory filing. 

LIC's income from first-year premium rose to Rs 14,663.19 crore as against Rs 11,053.34 crore in the same quarter previous fiscal. 

Last month, the government sold over 22.13 crore shares or a 3.5 per cent stake in LIC to raise raise Rs 20,557 crore.  

What should investors do? 

Meanwhile as the national insurer stock has seen significant correction, what should investors do? Experts are divided as in if this is the right time to make an entry in this counter.  

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, who believes LIC is a good long-term bet, says products like non-par products and linked products are witnessing higher net premium growth compared to par products, however, the overall share of par products remains significant.  

Due to a significant reduction in provision for doubtful debts and provisions for diminution in value of investments, the surplus has witnessed a 97% rise in FY 2022 compared to FY 2021, despite a significant rise in the benefits paid, he said.  

"The net profit of FY22 has increased by 40%. The share price of the company has witnessed a significant correction post the listing. Thus, we recommend investors to accumulate the stock for the long term," says Meena.  

The management expects to provide clarity on the VNB margins and EV post the June 2022 report, however, in the next 5 years, the management expects the margins to reach the industry’s average, the expert added. 

Sunil Damania, Chief Investment officer, MarketsMojo, was of the view that LIC may underperform from current level. " Looking at the current market situation and how the company has corrected post-IPO, we believe that LIC, even from this level, may continue to underperform going forward. Hence, we will advise our investors to stay away from LIC," said the expert.  

Meanwhile, Kotak Securities, in its report on the insurance sector, says that valuation of life insurers have declined 14-32% compared to September 2021 levels. It said correction in valuation multiples reflects lower Structural Value (SV) as ROEV forecasts remain strong. The decline in VNB multiple reflects in SV rise in cost of equity estimates and concerns around further expansion in VNB growth as margins are at peak levels and APE growth has slowed down. 

"We remain positive on pick up in APE growth. APE growth will likely be driven by diversifying of channels-increase in banks that sell insurance, growing agency forces, online business and new channels like POSP," it said.

On Wednesday, around 12.30pm, shares of LIC were trading flat at Rs 812.25 per share on the BSE.