GIFT Nifty futures up 150 points; markets likely to open higher

GIFT Nifty futures on the NSE IX were trading higher by 152.50 points, or 0.66 percent, at 23,282 as of this morning, indicating a strong start for Indian equities. This surge follows a mixed session in Asian markets, where Australian stocks rose 0.5 per cent, while Japanese shares traded flat after reopening post-holiday. S&P 500 futures also edged up by 0.2 per cent, providing optimism for global equities.

Technical outlook: Weakness persists in Nifty
Nifty’s underlying trend remains weak, with the index approaching its next support zone of 22,800–22,700 levels. According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, any pullback toward 23,350 could be seen as a sell-on-rise opportunity, highlighting caution among traders. The India VIX, a gauge of market volatility, jumped 7.2 per cent to settle at 16, suggesting elevated nervousness.

F&O ban list expands
Six stocks, including Manappuram Finance, RBL Bank, Hindustan Copper, LT Finance, Bandhan Bank, and Aarti Industries, are under the F&O ban today. This indicates that these securities have breached 95 percent of the market-wide position limit, restricting further derivatives trading.

FIIs remain net sellers; rupee hits a historic low
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Rs 4,893 crore worth of Indian equities on Monday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) offset some of the selling by purchasing Rs 8,066 crore. The rupee witnessed its sharpest one-day fall in two years, plunging 58 paise to close at a record low of 86.62 against the US dollar. A robust greenback and higher crude oil prices weighed on the currency.

Key events to watch
With a packed calendar featuring the Union Budget, Q3 earnings, and RBI’s policy review, analysts anticipate short-term volatility. Additionally, global factors, including U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical developments, remain crucial for market direction.

Outlook
The strong GIFT Nifty start points to a positive open for Dalal Street. However, traders should remain cautious given the weak technical trend and looming uncertainties.