FOMC meet, macro data, Russia-Ukraine crisis are key factors to drive market next week – Analysts list key Index levels

From key macro numbers to US Fed FOMC meeting scheduled next week would be the key drivers of the domestic market in the holiday-shortened coming week between 14-17 March, most of the market analysts said in their market next week estimates

On account of Holi, the market would be closed on March 18, 2022 – Friday in the next week.

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The markets this week witnessed a decent recovery amid volatility, surging over 2 per cent, taking a breather after 4 weeks of slide. The beginning was downbeat, tracking news of war between Russia-Ukraine intensifying, which pushed crude to the $130 per barrel mark.

Consequently, both Sensex and Nifty gained over 2 per cent each to settle at 55,550.3 and 16,630.4 levels respectively. The broader markets too ended with healthy gains wherein midcap and smallcap ended with gains of 2.5 and 4.2 per cent respectively. 

In the coming week, the participants will first react to the IIP data on Monday – March 14, 2022. On the same day, CPI Inflation and WPI Inflation are also scheduled, Ajit Mishra, VP Research. Religare Broking said in his comment.

Among the important event, he added, the US Fed policy meet outcome on March 16 will be closely watched as the majority expect a 25 bps hike, however, their commentary on the quantum of future rate hikes would be critical.

Besides, the updates on Russia-Ukraine tension and its impact on crude will remain in focus.  We feel participants should continue with a cautious stance until the prevailing geopolitical tension further eases, the market analyst said.

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart also believes, “FOMC meeting and Russia-Ukraine issue will be key global factors this week Indian markets rebound after a continuous fall for four weeks thanks to some positive news flows on the Russia-Ukraine standoff, BJP victory in four states, cool off in crude oil prices, and selling exhaustion.

“There are still uncertainties on the Russia-Ukraine issue while we will have an important FOMC meeting outcome on 16th March amid hyperinflation. Amid all, crude oil prices and FIIs' behavior will be important triggers to drive the Indian market in a truncated week,” Meena added.

Stating that the prudent approach is to focus more on risk management aspects, Mishra mentioned, a decisive close above 16,800 could help Nifty inch towards the 17,200 zones on the index front. However, in the case of decline, 16,000-16,200 zone would act as a cushion, he added.

Participants should focus on metal, IT, pharma, and select energy stocks for long trades while others may continue to trade mixed, Mishra suggested investors for the coming week.

According to Meena, “Bulls have to take Nifty above the 17000 level to come back aggressively in the game otherwise there is a risk that bears may again become active where 16300-16250 will be an immediate and critical support zone then16000-15500 will be the next support area.”

“In terms of Nifty Bank, the index also witnessed a smart pullback however 35500/36000/36500 are important resistance levels and it must cross 36500 level for any meaningful reversal. 34000 is an immediate support on downside while 33000-32500 is the next support area” he added.