EXCLUSIVE | Nifty at 40,000? Raamdeo Agrawal says not the right time to stay away from market

Market veteran Raamdeo Agrawal believes it is "not the right time to stay away" from the equity market, he said in an exclusive interaction with Zee Business on Wednesday. His remarks come at a time when the headline Nifty index has come within 225 points — or about one per cent — of its all-time high of 18,888, touched in December 2022. The Nifty Bank scaled a record high of 44,499 on May 30, 2023.

Agrawal sees the 50-scrip blue-chip gauge scaling a peak of 40,000 by 2028-2030 provided all the key factors remain favourable. He highlighted that there are strong triggers at play on Dalal Street.

"The March quarter earnings were good, with not many negatives... Banking and finance remained showstoppers, which may continue to be going forward," Agrawal, Chairman, and Co-Founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in an interview with Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi in the special segment, Life @ Life High.

Sharing his mantra for success in equities, Agrawal emphasized on the importance of staying invested when the market shows no decisive move or stays flat. "Investors must stay invested like a recurring deposit," he said.

So, does the market guru expect unprecedented levels on Dalal Street anytime soon?

"If not this year, the market will certainly be good in the coming years" on the back of factors such as economic recovery, earnings growth, robust GST numbers, strong PMI services, and manufacturing numbers, good FII flows, and improving domestic macro conditions, Agrawal said.

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“We were expecting the market to give 12-13 per cent returns last year despite good earnings," he said. However, it remained flat and is expected to give returns to the tune of 17-18 per cent after some consolidation, outperforming earnings growth of 12-13 per cent this year, Agrawal added.

Here are some of the key things market expert Raamdeo Agrawal pointed out:

EARNINGS

The Q4 earnings season has been good, with not many negatives, he said. Banking and finance remained showstoppers, which will continue, Agrawal added.

DOMESTIC ECONOMY

Global institutions like World Bank may have trimmed growth estimates but they believe India is among the fastest-growing economies in the world, the market veteran said.

"India’s contribution to the world's GDP will rise to 5-6 per cent in the next 10 years," he said.

SECTORS

Finance: Banking and financial stocks are seeing a dream run right now. This is mainly due to the highest margins and lowest credit cost amid rising demand. However, it is too early to call a top for the banking sector, he said.

Auto: A recovery in the sector is becoming more broad-based, Agrawal said, with auto manufacturers expected to sustain their growth trajectory in the coming quarters.

Realty: Agrawal is of the view that real estate will be the biggest beneficiary mainly on the back of wealth transfer from the stock market and on robust capital supply in the segment.

NEW-AGE COMPANIES

Agrawal is bullish on digitally-powered new-age companies. Listed new-generation firms like Zomato, Paytm, and PolicyBazaar are on the verge of delivering profit to promise, which makes them lucrative, he said.

"The good growth trajectory and strong management make it a perfect time to enter."

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