Dalal Street Voice: India on the cusp of secular economic growth for the next 5-7 years: Vaibhav Agrawal of TejiMandi

India is on the cusp of secular economic growth for the next 5-7 years. Corporate earnings growth has been resilient, and corporate debt to GDP is at a level of about 4.5%, which is the lowest in several decades, Vaibhav Agrawal, CIO, TejiMandi said in an interview with Zeebiz’s Kshitij Anand.

Agrawal is a seasoned professional with over a decade of expertise in stock picking and generating index-beating returns. Mentored by the aficionado of investors like Raamdeo Agrawal, Vaibhav has developed a distinct investment philosophy.

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The next leg of the rally is likely to be driven by financials, energy, commodities and capital goods companies, he said. Edited excerpts:

Q) How is the wealth management business domain is fast changing in India, especially after the pandemic? Is there any recent trend which you have seen?

A) The wealth management business has a long runway for the growth in India. With growing disposable income levels, investors will have larger surplus money to invest in financial products like managed portfolios, ETFs, mutual funds, etc.

With the recent influx of new investors in the market and lack of financial literacy in India, the role of financial planners and advisors become crucial, and hence, offers a great runway for wealth management business.

Q) What is your call on markets? The rally that we have seen is nothing short of fast and furious. Where do you see markets by Diwali 2022?

A) India is on the cusp of secular economic growth for the next 5-7 years. Corporate earnings growth has been resilient, and corporate debt to GDP is at a level of about 4.5%, which is the lowest in several decades.

Also, the balance sheets of corporate India are robust. With interest rates at all-time lows, it looks like the Capex cycle is also likely to gain momentum.
 
Furthermore, the government has shown a strong intent towards economic recovery with several initiatives like privatisation, formation of a bad bank, launching of PLI schemes, reforms in the telecom sector and farm laws. Investors both in India and abroad have taken a positive note of the same.
 
With the market hitting new all-time highs every other day, there is an expectation of a short-term correction. But the structural bull run is likely to continue.

More than timing the market, time spent in the market is important. Hence, investors should stay invested and use corrections as a buying opportunity.

Q) There will be a lot of jubilation among investors this Diwali as the market touched fresh peaks and most portfolios are in the green. What should be the portfolio allocation strategy for the next 1-3 years?  

A) Investors should look to invest in large private sector banks, which have a meaningful advantage over smaller banks due to better underwriting, lower credit cost, and operating leverage.

With credit growth at a decadal low of 5 per cent, it is only likely to improve from here as the economic activity picks up.

Furthermore, India is massively underinvested in infrastructure and real estate. Companies like L&T have significantly improved their balance sheet and will benefit from the pick-up in the real estate and infrastructure growth.

Q) Which sectors are likely to drive the next leg of the rally on the D-Street as the Nifty eyes 20000-22000?

A) The next leg of the rally is likely to be driven by financials, energy, commodities and capital goods companies.

Q) Gold lost some sheen in 2021 – is it time to buy the dip? What should be the ideal portfolio allocation towards the yellow metal or any other commodity?

A) Any asset can be bought at any time, depending on your risk appetite and goal. Now, the COVID-19 has affected the wedding season. The majority of people are spending less on their marriages and saving more to buy gold. Many, who are sceptical about the third COVID-19 wave, are also investing in gold.

Furthermore, gold imports have jumped multi-fold to $24 billion during April-September 2021. This indicates higher demand. Keeping this in view, one can buy gold and keep it for the long term to appreciate in value.  

Portfolio allocation in gold depends on person-to-person. For a normal investor, gold may comprise 15-20% of the total funds.

Meanwhile, for conservative investors, the chunk of gold’s allocation is increased to about 30%. It depends on the investor’s financial goal and risk-taking ability.

Q) International business as a theme picked up momentum, especially in the pandemic. How do you view this as a diversification theme and how much should one allocate?

A) Many investors allocate their funds to foreign stocks. With American stocks touching their highs, investors often are tempted to invest in international businesses. Global exposure is a nice approach to diversify your portfolio and reduce concentration risk.

Q) What are the various investment options available for HNI, UHNI investors? What is the trend you are seeing?

A) A plethora of new schemes is available to investors, unlike in the past, where investors lacked real options. PMSes and AIFs are great offerings that HNIs should actively look upon for investment.

They should also diversify a part of their investments into the US as well as the China markets to avoid the risk of concentration. A bunch of mutual fund schemes are now available in India that allows investors to diversify their portfolio into these markets.

Investors should exercise caution when investing in cryptocurrencies. While this asset class has gained tremendous popularity, it also tends to be volatile.

Also, regulations around these currencies are fluid. Hence, investing in this asset class can be quite risky.

Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.