Dalal Street Corner: Nifty, Sensex end highly volatile week with nearly 3% gains; what should investors do on Monday?

Domestic equity market closed the first trading session of the week on a high note as benchmark indices settled with more than 1% gain on Friday. The Nifty50 and the Sensex accumulated 3% and 3.3% respectively for the week ended April 1.  

On Friday, Nifty added 1.18% and the Sensex jumped 708 points to close at 17,670.45 and 59,276.69 respectively. All sectoral indices turned green in the Friday's closing, barring Pharma, which dropped marginally by 0.03%, and healthcare that shed 0.16%.  

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Nifty Bank added nearly 800 points as the 12-share banking index closed above 37,100. 

In the broader market, Nifty midcap and small cap indices sat in the green as they closed higher by 1.49% and 1.68%.  

Meanwhile, the stock market ended on a positive note on four out of 5 closings this week, despite geopolitical concerns and volatility in crude prices.  

“Indian equity markets gave positive returns this week. Globally too, equity markets remained broadly resilient led by optimism on progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. On the other hand, commodities saw some correction from the recent highs,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.
 
In India, markets saw broad based gains with most sectoral indices giving positive returns, he said. “Crude oil prices corrected this week and that is some positive for import-dependent countries, including India. Commodity price movements, inflation numbers and Central bank policy decisions are few key factors that will likely weigh on the domestic and global markets,” Chouhan added.

As the market kick-started new financial year on high note and ended the week nearly 3% higher amid volatility, we have collated views of market experts who speak on the current trend and explain how market can behave going forward. 

Parth Nyati, Founder, Tradingo  
Indian equity markets kicked off FY23 on a very strong note. In the early morning, SGX Nifty was showing a cut of 100 points on the back of weak global cues but it turned out an April fool as Nifty ended with a gain of more than 200 points. Historically, April remains one of the best months for the Indian equity market where midcap and smallcap tend to outperform. . 
 
Technically, Nifty witnessed a breakout of 100-DMA on Wednesday and now it is witnessing a rally following yesterday's consolidation. On the upside, 17800 is an immediate target, while 18,000-18100 is the critical resistance zone. On the downside, 17500-17450 will act as an immediate base, while 17300 is the next support level. 
 
Bank Nifty started to outperform following a breakout of the critical resistance zone of 36700-37000 and we may see further strength towards the 38000 level. On the downside, 36700-36500 will act as an immediate demand zone while 36000 is the next support level. 
 
Indian equity markets may continue to outperform, where movements of global markets, Crude oil prices, FIIs' behavior, and news flows related to the Russia-Ukraine issue will remain key factors. 

S Ranganathan,  Head of Research at LKP securities. 
Buoyant GST collections for March lifted sentiments with the Nifty PSE and the PSU Bank Indices registering smart gains on the first day of the new financial year with several stocks in sectors like Hospitality to Paper being sought after on many states doing away with all Covid related curbs. 

Positive Tailwinds buoyed several state-run firms in Gujarat to yearly highs and today's trade saw keen interest in the constituents of the Nifty Energy Index" 
 
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities Ltd 
 
Investors cheered the strong GST numbers for March, while reports about Russia started pulling out some troops from the Ukraine capital also aided the sentiment.  

Technically, after a 17450 breakout the Nifty has maintained breakout continuation formation which is broadly positive. In addition, strong bullish candle on weekly charts along with higher bottom formation also support further uptrend from the current levels. 

However, traders may prefer to take cautious stance near the 17800 resistance level due to the market being in an overbought situation. 

The current texture is likely to continue unless the index slips below 17450 or 10 day SMA. Above the same, we could see Nifty touching the level of 17800 and further upside could lift the index up to 17935. 

On the flip side, 10 day SMA or 17450/58400 would be the sacrosanct level for the positional traders and below the same, the index could slip to 17350-17200 levels. 

Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd 
 
Markets rebounded sharply and ended with strong gains, after a minor pause in the previous session. The benchmark opened marginally lower amid unsupportive global cues. However, healthy buying in energy, realty and banking stocks helped indices to gradually inch higher as the day progressed. 

Markets are largely following the global cues and we expect this trend to continue in absence of any major domestic event. Any favourable development on the Russia-Ukraine front would further fuel the rally. Among the sectors, the focus should be on banking which has finally shown some traction. We reiterate our near term target of 17,800 for Nifty. 

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)