Stock Market HIGHLIGHTS: Sensex, Nifty end in red amid profit booking; Reliance, Infosys, HDFC trigger fall
Stock Market HIGHLIGHTS: In the 50-stock Nifty50, 20 stocks gained while 30 declined. The top gainers were BPCL, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints and ITC while the top losers were Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, Hero MotoCorp, HCL Technologies and Tata Motors
Stock Markets HIGHLIGHTS: Indian stock markets ended in red on Wednesday trading in a narrow range. Frontline indices initially went up on news of 35 bps hike in repo rate only to shed gains later on the inflation and growth outlook. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das in his monetary policy speech highlighted that inflation remains elevated, much higher than Central Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent while lowering the GDP growth estimates for FY23 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent.
S&P BSE Sensex settled at 62,410.68, down 215.68 points or 0.34 per cent while NSE Nifty ended at 18,560.50, down by 82 points or 0.44 per cent.
Here are key takeaways from the day's session:
1) In the 50-stock Nifty50, 11 stocks gained while 39 declined. The top gainers were BPCL, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, Larsen and Toubro and Axis Bank while the top losers were SBI Life, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors.
2) Barring Nifty PSU Bank (+0.26 per cent) and Nifty FMCG (+0.96 per cent), all Nifty sectoral indices closed in the red. The worst performers were Nifty Media (-1.45 per cent), Nifty Metal (-0.88 per cent) and Nifty Consumer Durables (-1.06 per cent).
3) There was stock specific action in broader markets with Nifty Mid Cap 100 and Nifty Small Cap 100 ending with losses of 0.58 and 0.59 per cent respectively. The top gainers among mid cap stocks were Hindustan Petroleum, AU Small Finance Bank and Linde India while top losers were Oberoi Realty, Jubilant Foodworks and Godrej Properties. In the small cap pack the top gainers were NLC India, MRPL and Aegis Logistics while top losers were Sobha, Sterlite Technologies and Delta Corp.
4) India VIX, a measure of volatility index in Nifty was at 14.08, up 0.24 per cent from the Tuesday closing.
5) Out of 3,641 stocks that traded on BSE today, advances were 1,522 while declines were 1,979 while 140 stocks remained unchanged. Number of stock that hit 52-week highs were 152 while 21 stocks hit their 52-week lows.
6) The biggest laggards in terms of index contribution were Reliance Industries, Infosys, HDFC and Kotak Mahindra Bank. HUL and L&T were top contributors.
7) Singapore-based SGX Nifty, an early indicator of movement in Nifty50 was trading at 18,674.5, down 78. points or 0.42 per cent while Dow 30 Futures were trading at 33,543.30, up 53 points or 0.16 per cent.
8) The rupee pared initial losses and settled marginally higher at 82.47 against the US dollar on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the key repo rate by 35 basis points. Easing crude oil prices also supported the domestic unit, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 82.74 and touched an intra-day high of 82.40 and a low of 82.75 against the greenback. The local unit finally settled at 82.47, registering a rise of 3 paise over its previous close of 82.50. PTI
9) February Gold Futures were trading with marginal gains on MCX at Rs 53790 per 10 gram and were up by Rs 30. March Silver futures were trading at Rs 65589 per kg and were up by Rs 175 or 0.27 per cent.
18) Brent Crude has slipped below USD 80 per barrel.
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Rupee Vs Dollar - Expert View
"Indian rupee is expected to remain between 82-83 for the remaining part of the week. The RBI said it would control volatility but not the direction and also said forward premiums have fallen due to cash shortage and have started recovering from today. The premiums for 1 year were up by 15 basis points from a low of 1.62%," Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP said.
"The rupee consolidated/steadied at 82.50 after RBI hiked rates by 35 bps today and remained hawkish in its commentary with market bow expecting another 50 bps before calling a pause. The picture now shifts to US, ECB and UK with US inflation first on 13th and is expected to come at 0.3% in November against 0.4% for october. The FOMC meeting is on 14th and BOE and ECB on 15th after which we will have the holiday season," he added.
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
Stocks to Buy - Vikas Sethi's recommendations
Stock to Buy - Larsen & Toubro
Stock to Buy - Ambuja Cement
Markets Live: Stock speific action in small cap stocks
There was stock specific action in small cap stocks with 31 advances and 69 declines in the 100-share Nifty Small Cap 100 index. The top gainers were Aegis Logistics, All Cargo and HFCL while top losers were Suzlon, Delta Corp and Sterlite Technologies.
Live Markets: Mid Cap Performance
Live Markets - Nifty Sectoral Indices
While BSE Sensex and Nifty50 were trading negative, all sectoral indices but one were also in the red. Nifty FMCG was the lone gainer. The worst performing indices were Nifty Realty, Nifty Media and Nifty Consumer durables and each one of these was trading down 1 per cent. Nifty Bank which gained at the time of RBI MPC speech of Governor Shaktikanta Das, slipped as the session progressed. The Central Bank today raised repo rate by 35 bps.
Markets Live - Nifty Movement in Charts
Markets Live - Nifty top gainers and losers
Source: NSE RBI MPC - More Reactions
"RBI hiked repo rate by 35 bps in line with market expectation with a 5:1 vote. The stance was maintained at “withdrawal of accommodation” with 4:2 vote. MPC was of the view that further calibration action is warranted to keep inflation expectation anchored, to break core inflation persistence and contain a second round effect. Inflation projection for FY23 is maintained at 6.7% and H1 FY24 is pegged at 5.2%. Real GDP for FY23 is pegged lower from 7% to 6.8%. We continue to expect terminal repo rate of 6.5% in this rate cycle," Deepak Agrawal, Chief Investment Officer, Debt Fund, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company said.
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
RBI MPC - Expert Take
“The MPC expectedly delivered a 35bps hike with 5-1 vote and kept stance unchanged at “withdrawal of accommodation”. The tone was still cautious and data dependent, and with the governor emphasizing the need to calibrate the policy. The governor again highlighted the stickiness of core inflation the risk that sustained high inflation could unmoor inflation expectations and lead to second-round effects in the medium term," Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services.
"We note that while the governor justified INR’s resilience on net, a relatively dovish tone would not have augur well for INR which has seen sharp correction vs peers in last couple of days. This has been on account of already low forward premia in FX, and signalling of a pause would have further pressured the FX fwd premia on the downside, making carry trades less attractive for FPIs, implying fears of unwinding of these trades, ceteris paribus.
A 35bps hike today implies the ex-post real rates still sub 1% -- RBI's estimated real neutral rate, keeping 6-month ahead inflation as an anchor (a more certain trajectory vs one-year ahead), which may imply more space for another shallow hike of up to 25bps to reach a neutral rate (albeit not necessarily implying end of cycle) . At this point, we still think that the RBI would not turn too restrictive however, the extent of global disruption will remain key. We are closely watching the global pace of inflation deceleration and how the impending recession will shape DM central bank policies, which could influence the RBI’s reaction function. The still-fluid global situation might require frequent adjustments in macro and policy assessments ahead as far as terminal rates are concerned,” Arora said.
Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist, Kotak Institutional Equities said, "The RBI, in line with expectations, hiked repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25%. The stance also remains unchanged at withdrawal of accommodation though the voting against this stance has increased to two members. Overall, the concern on inflation continues especially as core inflation remains sticky and elevated. Growth concerns remain limited, for now. We believe the RBI is now close to the terminal rate with the real policy rate, based on few quarters ahead inflation, around 100 bps positive. The February policy decision will be finely split between a pause and a last 25 bps hike with a bias towards a hike given that near term inflation readings is likely to remain relatively elevated around 5.5%."
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
“Rupee quote on RBI Raises Rates by 35 bps to 6.25 per cent - The Reserve Bank of India raised its key repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25 per cent during its December meeting, the sixth rate hike in a row, amid
slowing inflation due to moderation in food prices, as widely expected. The annual inflation eased to 6.77% in October, down from September's five-month high of 7.41 per cent. Although inflation hit a three-month low in October, it remained above the RBI's tolerance range,” Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities & Currency, Mehta Equities Ltd said.(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
RBI MPC - Commentary on Inflation
RBI MPC - Inflation Estimates
RBI MPC Highlights
RBI MPC Highlights
RBI MPC
RBI MPC announcement begins - Watch Live HERE
Live Markets - Nifty, Bank Nifty
Stocks in News: L&T gets order worth Rs 7000 crore
RBI MPC
RBI MPC - Emkay's Views ahead of policy
The RBI too likely to tone down its pace of hikes
We expect the MPC to also ease its pace of rate hike and deliver 35bps in December, after three consecutive hikes of 50bps each (repo 190bps and, effectively, 300bps so far). The reduced pace of hikes is possibly driven by: (1) slower hikes ahead globally, giving a breather to Asian EM CBs; (2) inflation likely to ease ahead, even as the recent food spikes raised its momentum; (3) reckoning the need to assess monetary-policy lags of the hikes so far. The growth momentum has been mixed and we believe it is still witnessing the re-opening effect playing out, albeit at a flattening pace now. The RBI is unlikely to materially change its inflation & growth forecasts. Notably, global commodity prices have been falling, though the pass-through of the lower global prices to domestic prices has been low.
…but watch out for an MPC split and stance
The possibility of an MPC split (5-1 or even 4-2) in the upcoming meeting is not ruled out. We note that the Sep-22 vote was split 5-1, in favor of a 50bps hike. The last MPC minutes saw the two diverging members argue that (1) India has limited evidence of a wage-price spiral or demand-led inflation; and (2) the current policy rate is sufficient for inflation to glide back to target. The tone will likely be still cautious and data dependent, as inflation is still above the 6% tolerance mark, even though is poised to ease. Further, global uncertainties persist. And markets still do not have high-conviction answers to what the end-game would look like, on: i) how quickly core inflation declines; ii) global terminal rates, and how long these remain restrictive; iii) how high will the output sacrifice ratios be. But a 35bps hike would imply ex-ante real rates to be ~1%, i.e., the RBI's estimated real neutral rate (keeping one-year forward inflation forecast as the benchmark). Technically, this means that the RBI stance may turn neutral on policy stance, albeit remaining data-dependent. However, 6M ahead inflation benchmarking (a more certain trajectory) may imply more space for another shallow hike of up to 25bps. Current stance of “withdrawal of accommodation” may then be re-emphasized.
Rates market to cheer
Domestic bond yields have enjoyed a global bond rally and declined in line with the fall in UST yields. A 35bps hike with a neutral stance could hint at the end of the hike cycle, implying a healthy G-Sec rally. We think even the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance would lead markets to price-in peak rates by early-2023 and prompt a rally, wherein the recent 7.10% lows could be re-tested, although they may eventually revert to pre-policy levels. We are neutral on India bonds. The term premia compression, generally seen near the end of a rate hike cycle, may sustain and G-Sec could remain anchored at 7.25-7.50%, ahead. But in the near term, this would not augur well for the already-low forward-premia in FX, making carry trades less attractive for FPIs, and pointing to fear of unwinding of such trades, ceteris paribus.
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
Commodity Live
Source: MCX Markets Live: What top brokerages recommend?
- CLSA on Zee Entertainment Enterprises (CMP: 264)
Maintain Buy, Target raised to 325 from 315
Ad revenue recovery dragged by FMCG
Zee-Sony merger ahead will be a stock rerating catalyst, likely by end Fy23
Cut Zee’s 2HFY23/FY25CL ad revenue by 6-8%
- Nomura on ICICI Bank (CMP: 923)
Maintain Buy, Target 1060
- Jefferies on Aavas Financiers (CMP: 1879)
Maintain Buy, Target 2850
STK down 28% YTD due to concerns around growth moderation,
NIM pressure & rising opex intensity
Concerns appear overdone
Should deliver 23% loan CAGR over FY22-25e
See some pressure on NIMs, but it should defend margins better vs peers
Markets Live: What top brokerages recommend?
Morgan Stanley on Dabur (CMP: 593)
Upgrade to Overweight From Equalweight, Target raised to 660 from 578
Accelerating signs of rural recovery, improving portfolio mix to drive topline growth
favorable vals make a case for stk outperformance in coming mths
Expect earnings CAGR over F22-F25 of 14%,vs. 6% over F19-F22
- Macquarie on Siemens (CMP: 2764)
Maintain Outperform, Target 3120
L-1 bidder for large Dahod project order
order would be substantially higher than current order backlog of Rs172bn
Expect robust order inflow for Cos India’s mobility segment to continue
bake in a 23% order inflow CAGR over FY21–25E
- Jefferies on HDFC AMC (CMP: 2192)
Maintain Buy, Target 2450
Aberdeen Inv. plans to sell its entire 10.2% stake, of which 9.9% to a single buyer
They are seeking SEBI's approval for stake sale by co-promoter
& may need to seek approval from unitholders
May address share-supply overhang & aid re-rating
- Morgan Stanley on HDFC AMC (CMP: 2192)
Maintain Equalweight, Target 2040
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
Markets Live: Currency Updates
"Recession concerns dragged US equities down and took dollar index to 105.53 while US 10 year yields fell to 3.53%. Brent oil was below $ 80 peer barrel giving much needed relief to the high inflation. Asian currencies were all down as risk off sentiments took the sheen off the lower oil. CNH was however still above 7.00 .
Indian rupee was sold off yesterday as corporate demand drove it lower towards 82.60 a level seen after one month. Today the opening will be around 82.45 as dollar bids by corporates and oil continue with risk off sentiments which looks be the order of the day with SGX down by yet another 50 points.
We have the RBI policy today with RBI expected to raise by another 25-35 bps before possibly signaling a pause as inflation round the world falls. Rupee expected in a range of 82-83 with a close watch on RBI and its words on rates as well forex movements closely watched.
Exporters to continue to sell the uptics towards 82.50/60 while importers to wait for hedging as rupee volatility increases." - Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP said.
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
Markets Live - Trading Strategy in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil
Buy MCX GOLD FEBRUARY AT 53500 STOP LOSS 53250 TARGET 54000
Buy MCX Silver March AT 64600 STOP LOSS 63800 TARGET 65700
Sell MCX CRUDEOIL December AT 6300 STOP LOSS 6560 TARGET 6000
Sell MCX COPPER December AT 703 STOP LOSS 710 TARGET 690
Buy NSE NIFTY AT 18600 STOP LOSS 18420 TARGET 18880
BUY BANKNIFTY AT 43050 STOP LOSS 42700 TARGET 43650
Buy NSE USDINR AT 82.20 STOP LOSS 82.00 TARGET 82.70
Buy NCDEX GUARSEED DECEMBER AT 5750 STOP LOSS 5650 TARGET 6000
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)
Markets Live: Traders Diary
In today's edition of Traders Diary, Zee Business research team brings its exclusive research on 20 stocks that investors and traders can refer to while making their strategies in them. The research team of Kushal Gupta and Senior Research Analyst Varun Dubey recommends a buy, sell or hold strategy in cash stocks, futures and give their best picks for today.
Markets Live: Anil Singhvi Strategy
Indian markets will take cues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy announcements scheduled at 10 am today, Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi said. He said that investors must keep an eye on Bank Nifty. Amid negative global markets, neutral domestic institutional investors (DIIs), negative foreign institutional investors (FIIs), neutral futures & options (F&O) and neutral sentiment cues, the short-term trend of the Indian stock markets will be positive on Wednesday, December 07, 2022.
Markets Live: Anil Singhvi Strategy on Nifty and Bank Nifty - Key support and resistance levels
Markets Live: Anil Singhvi Strategy on Nifty and Bank Nifty - Key support and resistance levels
Markets Live: Anil Singhvi Strategy on Nifty and Bank Nifty - Key support and resistance levels
Markets Live: Anil Singhvi Strategy on Nifty and Bank Nifty - Key support and resistance levels
Stock Market Live: Watch biggest Coverage of RBI MPC on Zee Business
Good Morning! This is Shivendra Kumar and I am back with all the live action from the markets. Watch this space to remain updated.
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