Will demonetisation impact Indias GDP for the last quarter of FY17?
CSO will announce Indias fourth quarter GDP on May 31, 2017. GDP numbers for October - December 2016 period stood at 7.1% as against GDP growth of 7.4% in Q2FY17 and 7.2% in Q1FY17.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release India's GDP data for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2017 (Q4FY17) later on Wednesday.
Also Read: GDP numbers: How did cash-dominated sectors perform so well despite demonetisation?
Ritika Mankar Mukherjee, analyst, Ambit Capital said, "In our view GDP growth collapsed sharply in Q3FY17 mainly due to dip in economic activity in the cash-driven informal sector. From these low levels, GDP growth will improve in Q4FY17 as the RBI's remonetisation exercise pans out slowly but surely.”
GDP numbers for October – December 2016 period stood at 7.1% as against GDP growth of 7.4% in Q2FY17 and 7.2% in Q1FY17.
Q3FY17 numbers came in as a surprise as most analysts expected PM Narendra Modi's demonetisation drive to hit GDP data below 7%.
Mukherjee added, “Even as Q4 numbers will be better than Q3 numbers, given the extent of overstatement of GDP in Q3FY17, what matters most at this stage is will the CSO admit to economic weakness belatedly in a bid to reinstate its credibility.”
Meanwhile State Bank of India (SBI) believes the new series of Industrial Production (IIP) and WPI would mean that GDP numbers could be higher.
IIP or factory output increased by 2.7% year-on-year in March 2017, following an upwardly revised 1.9% rise in the previous month.
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