Rarely do investors get into a position where they have to keep a track of multiple important events on a single day, apart from their usual tracking of the markets and its participants. Tuesday will be one such day, when investors' focus will span from Karnataka elections, IMD forecast, macro data and more. In Monday's trade, Sensex ended at 35,556, up 20.92 points, while the broader Nifty50 closed at 10,806, up 0.10 points.

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This is virtually flat and it has left all the action for tomorrow.  So, what will move your market tomorrow? Find out here:    

Karnataka elections outcome

The most important trigger that may overshadow the others is of course Karnataka election outcome, the polling for which concluded on Saturday. Zee Business poll expects PM Narendra Modi led BJP to win maximum seats in the state, but not enough to win clear majority. 

"The average of exit polls suggests 100 seats for the BJP, 88 seats for the INC and 32 seats for JD(S). If both parties fall short of majority, an alliance with JD(S) will be mandatory for the formation of next state government. We expect the market to take a BJP victory positively; however, a narrow Congress victory will not lead to a great deal of consternation among market participants with six months to go for the next state elections and 12 months for general elections," said Kotak Securities in a report. 

Change in MSCI index

MSCI Index will conduct its semi-annual review tomorrow. Global brokerage Morgan Stanley expects India’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Market index to fall 20 basis points by August, when the full impact of the inclusion of China's A-Share index kicks in. A 20-basis point drop in weight could potentially lead to outflows of around $540 million from Indian markets as passive funds adjust their portfolios, said Morgan Stanley. Power Grid and Pidilite Industries are high conviction stocks that can make it to the index, said the Morgan Stanley report. Avenue Supermarts, HDFC Life, InterGlobe Aviation and Future Retail are few others that could be included. 

IMD forecast on monsoon

The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) will share tomorrow its forecast for arrival of monsoon in Kerala. Notably, private weather agency Skymet predicted the Southwest Monsoon to hit Kerala on May 28, four days ahead of its normal onset date. The normal date for onset of the monsoon in Kerala is June 1. 

Export-import data

Investors will keep an eye on the export-import data for the month of April that will be released tomorrow. 

Crude options to launch on MCX

Multi Commodity Exchange, the country’s largest commodity derivatives exchange, will launch options trading in Crude oil (100 barrels) futures from May 15.