From Biparjoy to Monsoon Rainfall: What to make of IMD cyclone warning and important weather updates

The very severe cyclonic storm 'Biparjoy' is expected to make landfall today evening near Jakhau Port in Gujarat with maximum wind speeds reaching up to 150 kmph. This has necessitated precautionary measures including evacuation of over 74,000 people living near the coastline and the deployment of disaster management units. The India Meteorological Department has issued a Red alert for the Saurashtra and Kutch coasts in Gujarat, hinting at the possibility of heavy damage.

“VSCS (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm) Biparjoy over Northeast Arabian Sea at 0230 hours IST of 15th June, 2023 about 200 km west-southwest of Jakhau Port (Gujarat). To cross Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi and Karachi near Jakhau Port by evening of 15th June as a VSVS,” forecasted the IMD.

Cyclone Biparjoy and its impact on Monsoon

Despite the ongoing presence of Cyclone Biparjoy and evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD predicts normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in India. This is in contrast to typical El Nino effects, which often result in weakened monsoon winds and dry weather in India.

Contrary to initial apprehensions, the cyclone is expected to have no significant future impact on the progress of the monsoon in India. The very severe cyclonic storm 'Biparjoy' has now separated from the monsoon path and it may not have a significant impact on the monsoon's progress or performance, according to IMD.

Interestingly, rather than hampering the monsoon's advancement, Cyclone Biparjoy has been instrumental in pushing it further over southern parts of the peninsula by amplifying the cross-equatorial flow over the Arabian Sea. This development has debunked the earlier fears of the cyclone delaying the monsoon, particularly over Kerala.

However, it is important to note that the onset of the monsoon over Kerala was delayed this year. While the current weather models do not indicate a strengthening of the monsoon in the coming week, the IMD anticipates the revival of the monsoon after the cyclone dissipates. The actual rainfall in Kerala during the first two weeks of June has been significantly lower than the expected amount, resulting in a 55 per cent shortfall.

IMD weather updates across regions

Despite the impact of Cyclone Biparjoy, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted varying weather conditions across the nation. While Delhi and Rajasthan are expected to experience rainfall due to the influence of Cyclone Biparjoy, bringing relief from the ongoing heatwave, other regions are expected to face different conditions.

Gujarat is expected to experience prolonged rainfall along its coastal areas due to the cyclone. At the same time, states like Sikkim, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and northeastern India are also expected to receive rainfall. Meanwhile, heatwave conditions are likely to persist in certain areas in Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.