February in 2023 has witnessed the warmest time in the past 122 years since India Meteorological Department (IMD) started keeping records in 1901, officials said on Tuesday. The month recorded the average maximum or day temperatures at 1.73 degree C above normal over the country and average minimum temperatures were 0.81 degree C above normal making it the 5th warmest in terms of night time temperatures alone, IMD said in a press briefing, while warning of a severe summer.

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The weather department said there is a high probability that most parts of northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India will experience hotter summer during March to May. IMD also cautioned about heat waves over many regions of central and adjoining northwest India during the next three months.

IMD is also expecting warm nights with above-normal minimum temperatures over most parts of the country during MAM, except south Peninsular India where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely. 

The government of India has cautioned the states to take precautionary measures in advance. The center fears that heat-related diseases will increase rapidly.  The monthly average maximum temperature for February was the highest since 1877, Bhan told reporters in response to a question, linking the rising trend to the phenomenon of global warming.

"The entire globe is living in an era of global warming. We are living in a warming world," Bhan said when asked whether the high temperatures were an indication of climate change. The monthly average minimum temperature over the Indian region was the fifth highest during this February since 1901.

Rainfall average over the country is most likely to be normal (83-117 per cent of long period average) in March, Bhan said. The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during March based on data from 1971-2020 is about 29.9 mm.

He said below-normal rainfall was expected over most areas of northwest India, west-central India and some parts of east and northeast India. Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, east-central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India.

Bhan said currently, La Nina conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, which was expected to weaken and turn to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during the pre-monsoon season.

He said it was too early to forecast the impact of El Nino conditions on the monsoon season. "April would be a better time to forecast the impact of El Nino on the monsoon. We will issue a forecast mid-April," Bhan said.

(With inputs from PTI)