The Nifty rose for the sixth week in a row, posting its longest stretch of the weekly gains. The 50-share index gained 1.07%, or 123 points, in the last week and 2.85% in August to close at 11680. The mid and small cap indices gained 1.94% and 1.81%, respectively.

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Except for infra and media, all the sectors ended in green. The Bank Nifty gained 0.82% again backed by a rally in PSU banks.

Metals firmed up by advancing 4.66%. JSW Steel was the stellar gainer rising 12% post the announcement of JSW Steel replacing Lupin in the Nifty50 effective from September 28, 2018. Hindalco also rose 7%. The IT and pharma sectors gained 3.61% and 3.28%, respectively, tracking weaker rupee, which slipped to a fresh record low of 71 against the greenback. The Indian currency has now lost nearly 10% since January.

The FIIs bought equities worth Rs 995 crore while the DIIs bought shares of Rs 2,823 crore in August.

In the last week highlights, worries of a trade war between the US and China intensified after the US President Donald Trump indicated preparing to impose tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods and threatened to pull out of the WTO which spooked the market sentiment across the globe. India’s economic data released on last Friday in which India’s April to July fiscal deficit stood at Rs 5.40 lakh crore while India’s Q1FY19 real GDP grew 8.2%, fastest in nine quarters led by consumption and investment growth. The real GVA also grew 8% on account of a pick-up in industrial growth (+10.3%) and better agricultural growth of 5.3%. YES Bank plunged 8% after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowed present CEO to continue his position till further notice.

Last week, Nifty hit its new life high of 11760 in a spectacular sprint for the month and then corrected in the later part of the week amid concern over rising rupee and crude prices. This may lead to rising twin deficits along with the trade war concerns. Consumption stocks rally paused post monsoon deficit still remained at 6% in this final spell and profit-booking in private sector banks stocks which set off the gains in pharma and IT sector stocks.

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Key global events to look for this week include the US July month trade balance releasing on Wednesday, ADP non-farm employment change, final services PMI, China, August month trade balance on Thursday. The US unemployment data will be released on Friday. India’s Nikkei August Manufacturing PMI will be announced today and Services PMI will be released on Wednesday. The automobile companies will announce their August month sales numbers this week. US markets are closed today in observance of Labour Day.

Last week, Nifty traded in a narrow range with upward bias post the concern over rising rupee and crude prices along with global trade war. For the week, Nifty will have a positive start with the booster of GDP data announcement with auto, pharma, PSU bank stocks in focus. The probable Nifty trading range for this week could be 11500-11850 with a key support level at 11630, a breach below this can drag Nifty to 11500.

By, Yogesh Vinod Mehta
(The writer is VP- Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Securities)

Source: DNA Money