Rupee vs dollar: Indian currency falls 13 paise to 73.61 ahead of FOMC minutes

The beleaguered Indian rupee managed to gain during the day against the US dollar but by the close ended up giving up all the gains by falling 13 paise to 73.61 on Wednesday. The top reasons were the continuing capital outflows as well as the American currency strengthening. The weaker domestic equity market did not help matter either. 

In his reaction, VK Sharma, Head PCG & Capital Markets Group, HDFC Securities, said, "Rupee dropped 13 paise with high volatility as one month implied volatility at 7.61%, well above the past 12-month average of 5.76%."

However, there was some relief from crude oil which fell half a percent after three days of gain after OPEC’s secretary general said the market will remain well-supplied. 
 
On liquidity problems, Sharma had this to say, "The benchmark 10-year bond yield rises 4bps Wednesday to 7.91%, snapping five-day drop after successful open market operation by central bank. However, market is still facing liquidity concerns amid corporate bond maturity in coming months. Liquidity deficit expected increase to 540 billion rupees by end-October from 83 billion rupees at end-September, after accounting for the RBI’s planned 360-billion-rupee injection."

Looking forward, the US Fed will be back at the top of the agenda when the minutes of the latest policy meeting will be released later today.

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Sharma revealed, "They should offer more clues on the outlook for policy tightening into next year. Interest rate futures are pricing 77% likelihood of rate hike in December meeting."