Rupee expected to weaken further, may touch 72 per Dollar levels

On account of sublime foreign investment, equity markets at highest among the emerging markets, government falling short in GST revenue collection and government of Indian not able to control the fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in current fiscal, the slide in rupee is expected to continue in the next few months too. Experts are of the opinion that fall in rupee may continue and it may touch the Rs 72 per dollar levels by end of February 2019 to mid of March 2019. They suggested the government to look at compliance not on taxes to fill the gap of Rs 20,000 crore, which it is lacking in GST revenue collection.

Asked about the future trend that rupee may show in the Forex market Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President, Kotak Securities told Zee Business Online, "Technically, the Indian currency looks bearish as the government of India is unable to bridge the gap of Rs 20,000 crore that it failed to generate through GST revenue collection." 

It first tried to fill that through foreign investment but investors didn't show any interest in the Indian markets as both bond and the equity markets in India are at its peak if compared to the majority of emerging economies. "The rupee would soon see the levels of Rs 72 per dollar by end of February or into mid-March as it looks like that the government won't be able to meet the targeted fiscal deficit, which was aimed to contain at 3.5 percent of the GDP in budget 2018. He went on to add that the government should come with a concrete road map for disinvestment as it looks a strong possible way to counter the rise in the fiscal deficit of the national economy.

When asked about the recent gains by rupee against dollar in recent trading sessions at the Forex Rakesh Bansal, VP, RK Global told Zee Business online, "It is mainly due to the weakness in US dollar caused by weak economic number and indications of no rate hike by the Fed chief. It is the dollar that has gone weak not the rupee."