RBI MPC: Indian Central Bank likely to hold repo rate steady, raise reverse repo
India`s central bank is expected to hold its repo rate steady on Thursday but several economists are expecting an increase in the reverse repo rate as part of a process to reduce surplus liquidity poured into markets earlier in the pandemic.
India`s central bank is expected to hold its repo rate steady on Thursday but several economists are expecting an increase in the reverse repo rate as part of a process to reduce surplus liquidity poured into markets earlier in the pandemic.
The three-day meeting of the Reserve Bank of India`s monetary policy committee is set to end on Thursday, having been delayed after Maharashtra state declared a day of mourning on Monday following the death of legendary singer Lata Mangeshkar.
See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:
A Reuters poll of economists forecast that the RBI would raise the reverse repo rate - the rate at which it borrows from banks - to 3.55% from 3.35%, narrowing the corridor between it and the repo rate to 45 bps.
The repo rate is expected to go up by 25 bps at the subsequent meeting in April according to a little over half the respondents while two-thirds expect one more similar sized increase later in the year.
"After months of incremental moves, we think the RBI will take a decisive step towards policy tightening by hiking the reverse repo rate at the conclusion of its MPC meeting," said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics.
The MPC has held the key repo rate at record lows since May 2020 and reiterated time and again that it will remain supportive of growth and keep its stance accommodative until economic recovery is firmly entrenched.
However, market participants believe it is time for the RBI to shift focus back to controlling inflation and for it to at least change its stance to `neutral` from `accommodative` at the upcoming review.
Retail inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 5.59% in December from a year earlier, while wholesale price-based inflation, a proxy for producer prices, marginally eased to 13.56%, but remained in double-digits for nine straight months.
Still, economists are split over whether the RBI will be comfortable changing its stance so soon after a government budget that spooked bond markets by planning for record high borrowing and a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit.
"Focus is likely to return to financial market stability amidst a challenging global policy backdrop. Bond yields have risen sharply following a high borrowing program for FY23, with market participants counting on central bank`s support to quell the pace of rise," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank.
"A 20 bps reverse repo rate is a possibility at this week`s meeting, but the change in stance might be scheduled for 2Q," she added.
Get Latest Business News, Stock Market Updates and Videos; Check your tax outgo through Income Tax Calculator and save money through our Personal Finance coverage. Check Business Breaking News Live on Zee Business Twitter and Facebook. Subscribe on YouTube.
RECOMMENDED STORIES
Senior Citizen Latest FD Rates: Know what major banks like SBI, PNB, Canara Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank are providing on fixed deposits
Gratuity Calculator: Rs 38,000 as last-drawn basic salary, 5 years and 5 months of service; what will be gratuity amount?
Retirement Planning: In how many years your Rs 25K monthly SIP investment will grow to Rs 8.8 cr | See calculations
Top 5 Small Cap Mutual Funds with best SIP returns in 1 year: See how Rs 25,000 monthly investment has grown in each scheme
Top 7 SBI Mutual Funds With Best SIP Returns in 1 Year: Rs 25,000 monthly SIP investment in No.1 fund has jumped to Rs 3,58,404
SBI 5-Year FD vs MIS: Which can offer higher returns on a Rs 2,00,000 investment over 5 years? See calculations
03:48 PM IST