Q2FY18 Preview: Will Reliance Industries improve refining margins?

Reliance Industries (RIL) is just few hours away in presenting its second quarter ended September 30, 2017 result, and the stock price has already touched a record high. 

RIL stocks gained to 52-week high of Rs 891 per piece higher by 2% on BSE. It market valuation has also hit over Rs  5,57,264.51 crore ahead of Q2. 

During Q1FY18, RIL not only surpassed analysts estimates in earnings but also brought various gifts for subscribers through its telecom arm Reliance Jio - like Rs 153 data plan and JioPhone.  

Q1FY18 of RIL saw rise of 28% in consolidated net profit to Rs 9,080 crore versus Rs 7,077 crore in Q1FY17. Also, total income grew by 25.50% to Rs 92,661 crore as against Rs 73,829 crore in Q1FY17.

Both refining and petrochemical business saw increase in prices and volumes. 

For Q2FY18, analysts at Phillip Capital sees GRM of $ 12.7per barrel; 115% refining utilisation, higher petchem volumes, stable margins. 

Motilal Oswal said, "We expect RIL to report GRM of $12.6 per barrel v/s $11.7 per barrel in1QFY18 and $10.1per barrel in 2QFY17. We model a premium of $ 4.3 per barrel over benchmark GRM of $8.3per barrel which is up over 62% year-on-year (YoY) and 29% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)."

Petchem segment is also seen better despite decline in HDPEand LDPE delta, with RIL being an integrated player and strongvolume growth in the segment.

Prabhudas Lilladher said, "Refining thruput is likely to be higher; we have factored in 17.8MTPA (17.3MTPA in Q1FY18). However, petrochemicals and polyester spreads are likely to come off sequentially."

Thus, profit after tax (PAT) is seen at Rs 8,821 crore - higher by 14.5% yoy and 8% qoq. While EBITDA (operating profit) is factored at Rs 12,645 crore and margins at 17.2% this Q2. 

Also Mukesh Ambani's comment on Reliance Jio will be keenly watched.