Positive sentiments, upcoming IPOs to lift broking industry revenues to Rs 19,000 crore in FY18

The upcoming initial public offer (IPO) for the current financial year, positive investor sentiment and a benign capital market outlook to push the volumes of broking industry, a research report said. 

A further improvement in the profitability of brokers in FY2018 driven by higher revenues following the uptick in the equity markets, higher interest income and control on expenses provided the brokers are able to maintain their credit costs in the margin lending business,” ICRA report said.

In FY18, the revenues of broking industry is expected to touch Rs 18,000-Rs 19,000 crore, a rise of 15-20% on the back of healthy overall volume growth and an increase in the share of the cash segment, the report suggested. 

ICRA in its research report titled "Healthy outlook for the brokerage industry, riding on the capital markets rally" said, "The higher yielding cash volumes are expected to receive a boost with a likely increase in margin trading by brokerage houses pursuant to the recent regulation on lower margin requirements. This would also help support the income profile of full-service brokerage houses given the price competition from discount brokerage houses."

Moreover, as per the report, in FY17, the domestic capital markets revived due to favourable market sentiment, healthy foreign institutional investment (FII) inflows, and growing domestic institutional investor (DII) participation in the market. 

Karthik Srinivasan, Senior Vice President and Group Head - Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA said, “The increase in DII inflows provides greater resilience to the domestic capital markets. While the current capital market outlook is benign and the IPO pipeline for FY2018 is likely to encourage retail participation, a meaningful revival in corporate earnings would provide further fillip to the capital markets and boost FII equity inflows.”

Higlighting the numbers, the report mentioned that the equity turnover at the exchanges registered a robust growth of  approximately 35% in FY17, with the average daily turnover (ADTO) increasing to Rs 4,05,000 crore in FY2017 from Rs. 3,01,000 crore in FY2016. 

This shows the limited impact of demonetisation in the market turnover after a slowdown in Q3FY17 which again picked up in Q4FY17.

Till now in the current fiscal, the ADTO increased to Rs. 5,67,000 crore in Q1FY18, registering a growth of 40% over the FY17 average, the report stated.

Moreover, the research agency pointed out that Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) margin trading facility guidelines will give a further push to cash volumes.

“While brokerage houses were allowed to offer margin trading earlier as well, the strict guidelines made the product uncompetitive as in comparison with the facilities offered by non-banking financial companies. Margin funding, thus, was conducted through the NBFC arms of brokerage houses. The revised guidelines make margin funding a viable product for brokerage houses and would also help brokerage houses shore up their profitability”, Srinivasan added.

Looking at the numbers of commodities market, the report stated that while the market was showing a healthy performance in H1FY17, demonetisation put a halt in the bullion segment. 

 The commodity markets registered a turnover of Rs. 29.07 trillion (ADTO of Rs. 0.22 trillion) in H2FY2017, as compared with a volume of Rs. 18.52 trillion (ADTO of Rs. 0.28 trillion) during Q2FY2017. 

"The turnover further slipped to Rs. 13.57 trillion (ADTO of Rs. 0.21 trillion) during Q1FY2018. The strong performance of the equity markets also resulted in a shift in investor preference towards equity and mutual funds as asset classes from the commodities segment," the report added. 

Currency trading volumes of brokerage houses remained volatile in the past nine quarters after growing sizeably during Q4FY2015. The currency market ADTO spiked to Rs. 0.35 trillion during Q3FY2016 largely on account of demonetisation, before declining to Rs. 0.32 trillion during Q4FY2017. During Q1FY2018, volumes rebounded to Rs. 22.43 trillion with ADTO spiking to Rs. 0.37 trillion, which was higher than the ADTO in the past three quarters.