Oil Price Outlook: Know what will impact prices this month

Crude Oil Outlook: Coronavirus pandemic will continue to create global economic uncertainties putting crude oil in a spot, Senior Technical Analyst Anuj Gupta said adding that the current trend reflected a downward bias. He said that there is enough supply while the demand has not picked as much pace.

The resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the US and Europe have raised worries about fuel demand growth, further aggravating the current gap between the demand and supply situation, Gupta said.  

This also poses a challenge for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together called OPEC+, he added.  

Gupta, who is a Deputy Vice President, Commodity and Currency Research at Angel Broking said that he expected the US WTI crude to trade around USD 37 while the Brent Crude at USD 41 by the end of this week.

While the WTI Crude was trading flat from the last close at USD 39.20 USD, Brent Crude was trading around USD 41.70, also flat from the last close.  

The MCX October crude oil futures were trading around Rs 2897 per BBL around 01:10 pm today. He expected the prices to fall around Rs 2750 by the end of this week.  

Another commodity analyst Amit Sajeja, Assistant Vice President, Research at Motilal Oswal said the oil is likely to trade in a range-bound manner. He said that he expected oil to trade within USD 35 and USD 45 over the October period. He said that the balance around USD 40 dollars is likely to be maintained.  

He said that the OPEC had already limited the supply side so the downside from here is not much. He also did not see the prices go beyond USD 45 for another 4-5 months even if the demand picked up.

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He said that the Crude Oil futures on MCX are likely to be around Rs 2500 on the downside while on the upside they could be around Rs 3300 per BBL.