Monsoon update: 10 days into nationwide coverage, here's what the weather office predicts

After a slow start, the southwest monsoon has now covered the entire country. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon covered the entire country on July 2 six days  ahead of the normal date of July 8. After 10 days of monsoon covering the entire country the weather agency has predicted that heavy rain the northern states will subside this week. The initial 10 per cent deficit in monsoon rains saw a surprising turnaround to a surplus within just 8 days. The cumulative rainfall this monsoon season has reached 243.2 mm, surpassing the normal expectation of 239.1 mm. This rise in rainfall has balanced the overall rainfall for the country, signaling a promising remainder of the season.

Several states across the country have already witnessed flooding and widespread damage due to excessive rains. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has now released an overview of the anticipated weather patterns for the coming days.

Rainfall Prediction for the coming week

The IMD predicts an active monsoon trough south of its usual position during most days of the coming week. An off-shore trough is expected from the Gujarat coast to the north Kerala coast, along with robust westerly/southwesterly winds likely along the west coast during several days of the week.

These atmospheric conditions may induce light to moderate and fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy rains over the central parts of the country and along the west coast. South Peninsular India is also likely to experience similar rainfall activity during most days of the week, according to IMD.

In the northwest, east, and northeast regions, light to moderate and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall or thunderstorms are anticipated. Among these regions, northeast and adjoining eastern states may witness isolated heavy rainfall during many days of the week.

Overall, the rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over central India, normal to above normal over south peninsular region and northwestern states. An exception to this prediction includes the Western Himalayan Region and Punjab, where rainfall is likely to be below normal. Conversely, near-normal rainfall is expected over east and northeast India.

IMD's rainfall classification

Understanding the magnitude of rainfall is crucial for preparation and response. According to the IMD, the rainfall is categorized based on the amount of rain received. Heavy rain ranges from 64.5 to 115.5 mm, very heavy rain from 115.6 to 204.4 mm, and any rain over 204.4 mm is classified as extremely heavy.

Rain to subside in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana

After days of incessant rain causing extensive damage and loss of life in parts of north India, a reduction in rainfall over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana was observed as of July 11. As anticipated by the IMD, the subsiding rainfall provides some respite to these regions, giving the local governments the much-needed time to step up their rescue and relief efforts in the affected districts.

IMD's weather alerts

In the wake of the torrential rains, the IMD issued red and orange alerts for several states. A red alert, indicating extremely heavy rainfall, has been issued for Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal for the coming days.

An orange alert, signifying heavy to very heavy rainfall, has been issued for Uttarakhand and western Uttar Pradesh for July 12. Besides, the IMD also foresees heavy to very heavy rain in Bihar from July 11-13 and in several other regions over the next few days.