Monsoon forecast: Good news! 2018 rains expected to be normal, says IMD

Monsoon forecast:  India is likely to receive average monsoon rains in 2018, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said, raising the possibility of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy, where half of the farmland lacks irrigation. Monsoon rains are expected to be 97 percent of a long-term average, K.J. Ramesh, director general of IMD, said during a news conference. The IMD predicted that India is going to experience third successive normal monsoon season in 2018, with a total seasonal rainfall likely to be 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with the model error of five per cent. 

MET in its prediction also said that there is very less probability of deficit monsoon this year in India. It added that on May 15, 2018, it will be coming out with the assessment of onset of monsoon over Kerala coast. This was the first official forecast for 2018 southwest monsoon rain. 

Prediction of the southwest monsoon rains is an annual event that sets the tone not only for agricultural production but also the manner in which the economy, stock markets, inflation and interest rates would move in the year. 

Monsoon rains are the lifeblood of India's farm-dependent 2 trillion dollar economy. The June-to-September rains are vital for farming. 

Earlier, a private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, in its forecast also said that the southwest monsoon is likely to be normal in 2018.

IMD and Monsoon forecast
IMD, also referred to as the Met Department, issues various monthly and seasonal forecasts of rainfall for the southwest monsoon season. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast was issued today and the second stage forecast will be issued in June. 

These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system that is critically reviewed and improved regularly through in-house research activities. 

Quantum of Rainfall and their categorisation 

According to the IMD,  the quantum of rainfall is dependant on the percentage to which it occurs. Below is the list of Quantum of Rainfall and 

• Drought: If the total quantum of rainfall is less than 90  per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). 
• Normal rainfall: If the total quantum of rainfall is between 90 and 96 per cent of the LPA.
• Near-normal: If the total quantum of rainfall is between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA.
• Above normal: If the total quantum of rainfall is between 104 and 110 per cent of the LPA.
• Excessive rainfall: If the total quantum of rainfall is more than 110% of the LPA.