Monsoon Forecast 2023: Skymet Weather predicts below-normal rainfall between June and September - Details

Skymet Weather Forecast: Private weather agency Skymet on Monday, April 10 released the monsoon forecast for 2023. According to the agency, India may witness below-normal rains for the upcoming monsoon.

The Noida-based private weather forecaster said that 94 per cent ( with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the four-month long period is expected between June and September months.

The weather company has predicted that the spread of below normal is 90-95% of LPA. Skymet in its preliminary forecast released on January 4, 2023, assessed the monsoon 2023 to be sub-par and the same continues at present.

The company also expects northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of being rain deficit. Apart from this, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August whereas the rains in North India's agri-bowl states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh are likely to observe less than normal rains during the second half of the season.

"Courtesy Triple-Dip-La Nina, southwest monsoon observed above normal/normal rainfall for the last 4 consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. The likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon," Managing Director of Skymet Jatin Singh said.

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Besides El Nino, there are other factors too influencing monsoons. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino, when sufficiently strong. IOD is now neutral and leaning toward turning moderately positive at the start of the monsoon. El Nino and IOD are likely to be 'out of phase' and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. The second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated.

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:

• 0 per cent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110per cent of LPA)

• 15 per cent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110per cent of LPA)
• 25 per cent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104per cent of LPA)

• 40 per cent chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95per cent of LPA)

• 20 per cent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA)

On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadowing is as follows:

June - 99 per cent of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3 mm)
• 70 per cent chance of normal
• 10 per cent chance of above normal
• 20 per cent chance of below normal

July - 95 per cent of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5 mm)
• 50 per cent chance of normal
• 20 per cent chance of above normal
• 30 per cent chance of below normal

August - 92 per cent of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9 mm)
• 20 per cent chance of normal
• 20 per cent chance of above normal
• 60 per cent chance of below normal

September - 90 per cent of LPA ( LPA for September = 167.9mm)
• 20 per cent chance of normal
• 10 per cent chance of above normal
• 70 per cent chance of below normal

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