Monsoon Forecast 2023: IMD has started the Virtual Press Conference on “Long Range Forecast Southwest Monsoon 2023 and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast. The monsoon’s onset over Kerala is now likely to be on June 4 with a model error of plus/minus 4 days said IMD. El Nino weather pattern till 2024.  The IMD forecast a normal monsoon during June. This year Uttar Pradesh will receive normal rainfall according to IMD data. Region wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over Northwest India (<92% of LPA) and normal over other three broad homogeneous regions; central India (94-106% of LPA), North East India (94-106% of LPA) and South Peninsular India (94-106% of LPA). In June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for the extreme north and some parts of the southern peninsular India, where below-normal and normal temperatures respectively are likely.

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The southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season.

The El Nino conditions this year follow three consecutive La Nina years. La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino, typically brings good rainfall during the monsoon season.

Rainfall Forecast and Warning from May 25 to May 31: Northwest India

Light/moderate rainfall at most places with thunderstorm, lightning & occasional gusty winds/squall very likely over the Western Himalayan Region and rainfall at many places with thunderstorms, lightning and occasional gusty winds/squall very likely over plains of Northwest India till May 26. Thundersquall/Gusty Wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan on May 25.  Under the influence of a Western Disturbance, a fresh spell of rainfall/thunderstorm is likely over northwest India from May 29 Night.