Monsoon 2022: Southwest monsoon rainfall to cover east coast in 2-4 days; June-September LPA likely to be 103%, says IMD

The Indian Meteorological Department on Tuesday said that the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country is most likely to be normal and it is likely to reach Karnataka, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Konkan belt in the next two-four days.

According to the weather department, “The long-period average (LPA) for June to September seasonal rainfall is likely to be at 103 per cent with a model error of 4 per cent. Monthly forecast shall be given end of June, July and August for subsequent one month.” 

Similarly, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 per cent of LPA), the weather department also said. The southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 29, 2022 – three days ahead of its usual period. 

The seasonal rainfall LPA over the country for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm, the weather department said.  

It added that the monsoon rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall regions may be above normal – Central India (106% of LPA) & South Peninsula (>106% of LPA), and rainfall most likely to be Normal over Northeast India (96-106% of LPA) and Northwest India (92-108% of LPA).  

Monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most rainfed agriculture regions is most likely to be above normal (>106% of LPA), the statement said.  

Prevailing La Niña conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and there is the possibility of the development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season, it said. 

As per the satellite observations recorded Tuesday early morning, the cloud patch over the South East Arabian Sea is expected to move towards Kerala and Karnataka, senior scientist at the IMD, Pune, K S Hosalikar, said in a Twitter post.