Conditions favour monsoon advance over Kerala in next five days: IMD

In its latest update, the India Meteorological Department said conditions are likely to become favourable for the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala during the next five days.

The southwest monsoon, as predicted by the weather bureau, is likely to hit Kerala on May 31, a day before the normal date of June 1.

Kerala is currently experiencing pre-monsoon rains.

In 2023, rainfall over the country as a whole during monsoon season (June-September), was 94 per cent of its long-period average.

The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season.

As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas that it tends to cover.

These rains are crucial to the Indian agriculture economy ( especially for kharif crops). India has three cropping seasons -- summer, kharif and rabi.

Crops that are sown during October and November and the produce harvested from January depending on maturity are Rabi. Crops sown during June-July and dependent on monsoon rains are harvested in October-November are kharif. Crops produced between Rabi and Kharif are Summer crops.

Traditionally, the Kharif crops are heavily dependent on the normal progression of monsoon rainfall. Paddy, moong, bajra, maize, groundnut, soyabean, and cotton are some of the major Kharif crops.

The dependency of Kharif crop output on monsoon rainfall has been on a gradual decline, according to an analysis done by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).

Earlier this year, IMD in its first long-range forecast has stated the southwest monsoon (June-September) this year is expected to be above normal (106 per cent of the long-period average).
Skymet, a private forecaster, has also forecast a normal monsoon this year.

India receives over 70 per cent of its overall rainfall during this southwest monsoon period.

Thus, the timely and proper occurrence of monsoon rainfall holds prominence for the Indian economy, given the livelihood of nearly 45 per cent of India's population depends on agriculture which depends on rainfall.

The IMD has been releasing its first stage forecast for southwest monsoon rainfall during April since 2003. The first stage forecasts hold importance for farmers, policymakers, and investors, who make use of this information to undertake necessary actions for the forthcoming Kharif season.