Indian rupee worst performer in EM market; these factors play spoilsport

Trading in Indian rupee is buoyant against US benchmark dollar index at interbank forex market. The currency has been hovering over 68-mark since past trading session against the dollar, and Wednesday was no different. In early opening today, the domestic currency pared its initial losses, trading 11 paise lower at 68.15 against the American currency on the back of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks amid higher dollar overseas. Following the current trend the rupee touched a fresh 52-week high and has become worst performer in Emerging markets. 

At around 13:25 hours, Indian rupee was trading at 68.325 down by 0.240 points or 0.35% against the US dollar. 

Anindya Banerjee analysts at Kotak Securities said, "The stalling price formation of the last few days has resolved in the direction of the primary trend, which is upward. Dollar Rupee is now trading at 68.25 levels on spot, a fresh 52 week high.Although oil prices have backed-off from the 80 handle that was witnessed on Brent during yesterday's North American session but there is no impact on USDINR.” 

Banerjee added, “ Even the US 10 yields have stayed around 3.06%. However, sell-off in EM currencies continue, led by Turkish Lira. Over the past week, Lira has fallen by 7.5%, standing out in the EM basket. Rupee, has fallen in line with the other EM currencies. However, during 2018, Rupee is still one of the worst four performers in the EM basket, along with Brazil, Turkey and Argentina.” 
 

In previous trading session, the Indian rupee finished at 68.440 down by 0.01%. Meanwhile, foreign investors continued removing their money, as there was an outflow of Rs 1,892.66 crore recorded cumulatively in equity, debt and hybrid market. 

According to Kotak, technically, primary trend remains upward and until and unless the pair closes below the upper 2 SD Bollinger on weekly basis, around 67.30 on spot, we remain a buyer on decline. For the short term, buying between 68.05/ 15 levels can be done on spot basis, with stops below yesterday's low of 67.93 on spot. 

Therefore, Banerjee added, “A cocktail of oil, rates, dollar and domestic politics is playing spoilsport. Unless oil prices fall sharply, below 75 on Brent, Dollar Rupee can aim for the all-time highs.”