India Ratings projects economic growth at 7.1% next fiscal
India Ratings and Research today projected the country's economic growth to improve to 7.1 per cent next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year, buoyed by robust consumption demand and low commodity prices.
In its outlook for 2018-19, the agency said there will be a gradual pick up in growth momentum owing to structural reforms like GST and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) in place.
"While the implementation of GST is likely to benefit the economy over the medium to long term, the same cannot be said about the impact of demonetisation," India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra), a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said.
Ind-Ra expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 7.1 per cent year-on-year in 2018-19, it said.
The projection is a tad lower than 7.4 per cent growth estimated by Asian Development Bank (ADB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for next fiscal.
Ind-Ra said but for demonetisation and Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation, growth would not have decelerated to 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 6.5 per cent in 2017-18.
With the global crude prices firming up, Ind-Ra expects retail and wholesale inflation to come in at 4.6 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively in 2018-19, indicating an end to the current rate cut cycle.
There is still some fuzziness with respect to the intensity and the level of its future trajectory, it said, adding that the RBI "will remain in a pause mode for an extended period of time".
The agency said it expects fiscal deficit in 2017-18 to come in at 3.5 per cent, overshooting the budgeted estimate of 3.2 per cent.
"Despite 2018-19 being a pre-election year, Ind-Ra does not expect the Union Budget to be a populist budget. However, it expects some expenditure reallocation with an increased focus on the rural and agriculture sectors," it said.
The agency expects fiscal deficit in 2018-19 to be at 3.2 per cent, higher than 3 per cent stated in the medium-term fiscal policy statement.
A mix of global and domestic factors will keep the Indian rupee range bound at average Rs 66.06/USD in 2018-19, it said.
Get Latest Business News, Stock Market Updates and Videos; Check your tax outgo through Income Tax Calculator and save money through our Personal Finance coverage. Check Business Breaking News Live on Zee Business Twitter and Facebook. Subscribe on YouTube.
RECOMMENDED STORIES
![https://www.zeebiz.com/personal-finance/photo-gallery-sbi-444-day-special-fd-vs-pnb-400-day-fixed-deposit-interest-rate-maturity-calculator-what-will-general-senior-citizens-get-in-return-on-inr-rs-350000-700000-investments-in-guaranteed-fixed-income-333262](https://cdn.zeebiz.com/sites/default/files/styles/zeebiz_700x394/public/2024/12/17/338752-currency-500-pixabay-new.jpg?itok=cvqeEZct)
SBI 444-day FD vs PNB 400-day FD: Here's what general and senior citizens will get in maturity on Rs 3.5 lakh and 7 lakh investments in special FDs?
![https://www.zeebiz.com/startups/news-coca-cola-dominos-funded-thrive-food-delivery-startup-shuts-down-consumer-app-amid-intense-competition-from-zomato-swiggy-check-revenue-challenges-funding-333130](https://cdn.zeebiz.com/sites/default/files/styles/zeebiz_700x394/public/2024/12/16/338593-startup-24.jpg?itok=sZipMCHH)
Coca-Cola & Domino's-backed food delivery startup loses battle to Zomato & Swiggy; shuts down consumer app
![https://www.zeebiz.com/personal-finance/photo-gallery-inr-rs-4000-monthly-sip-investment-for-33-years-vs-40000-for-15-years-retirement-corpus-calculator-which-can-give-you-higher-return-in-5-10-15-20-25-30-33-years-power-of-compounding-1000-2000-3000-333076](https://cdn.zeebiz.com/sites/default/files/styles/zeebiz_700x394/public/2024/12/16/338536-note-coin-pixabay-take-2.jpg?itok=gT3YYpV3)
Rs 4,000 Monthly SIP for 33 years vs Rs 40,000 Monthly SIP for 15 Years: Which can give you higher corpus in long term? See calculations
![https://www.zeebiz.com/personal-finance/photo-gallery-sukanya-samriddhi-yojana-ssy-and-ppf-public-provident-fund-rs-100000-per-year-investment-for-15-years-which-can-create-larger-corpus-on-maturity-calculate-331817](https://cdn.zeebiz.com/sites/default/files/styles/zeebiz_700x394/public/2024/12/10/337181-pf.jpg?itok=9RWz0AZJ)
Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana vs PPF: Rs 1 lakh/year investment for 15 years; which can create larger corpus on maturity?
01:31 PM IST