IMD predicts monsoon onset in Kerala by June 4

The southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala coast by June 4, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The southwest monsoon has advanced into some more parts of South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area and the conditions are favourable for the advancement of monsoon, according to IMD’s prediction.  

“Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of South Arabian Sea and Maldives area, some parts of Lakshadweep area, entire Comorin area, some more parts of South Bay of Bengal and Eastcentral Bay of Bengal,” IMD tweeted on Friday.

Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of South Arabian Sea and Maldives area, some parts of Lakshadweep area, entire Comorin area, some more parts of South Bay of Bengal and Eastcentral Bay of Bengal.#IMD #monsoon #WeatherUpdate pic.twitter.com/Rc99XDE4qW

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) June 2, 2023

The IMD has also predicted that the crucial southwest monsoon will reach Kerala around June 4, with a margin of error of approximately three days. It is to note that this onset date is slightly delayed compared to the usual date of June 1 or June 2.

“The conditions are favourable for the advancement of the monsoon. The forecast is on track as the estimate for the monsoon onset in Kerala allows a standard deviation of 6 days,” Dr Sivananda Pai, Scientist at the Environmental Monitoring and Research centre, IMD, was quoted as saying by Manorama Online.   

Rain or thundershower is most likely to occur at a few places in Kerala and Lakshadweep from Saturday to Wednesday (June 3 to June 7), the weather agency said in its weekly bulletin released on Friday.  IMD also warned that squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-45 gusting to 55 kmph is likely to prevail over Kerala coast and advised fishermen not to venture into the sea.

IMD also predicted that heavy rainfall (7cm to 11cm) is very likely to occur at isolated places in Kerala on Sunday, June 5.

In addition, Lakshadweep, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka regions are likely to experience light to moderate showers accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds. Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, on the other hand, may experience isolated to scattered rainfall during this period.

IMD, in its weekly weather forecast, predicted a cyclonic circulation to form over the southeast Arabian Sea by Monday. This formation is likely to give rise to a low-pressure area in the same region within the following two days, potentially impacting regions in northwest, south, northeast, and east India.