Expert Poll on RBI Monetary Policy: Staus quo on rates, change in policy stance expected amid growing expectations

RBI MPC: The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on April 6, started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain the status quo on the interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising Inflation on account of geopolitical developments. Zee Business' brings experts' expectations from the outcome.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is holding its first meeting in the current financial year. The meeting which began on April 6 will conclude on 8 with the outcome to be announced on April 8.

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Here are the key points from the experts' discussion:

• Zee Business' research analyst Varun Dubey said that experts believe that RBI will maintain its status quo on repo rates as well as reverse repo rates.
• Talking about the change that will occur in the entire year, the hike can be between 25 bps to 75 bps.
• Commenting on the approach of RBI, half of the experts believe it will remain constant, while others believe in the opposite.
• RBI's perspective towards Inflation will remain constant, according to half of the experts.
• However, the inflation target can be changed by RBI according to the collective group of experts.
• Apart from this, brokerage firms decreased their GDP projection. Half of the experts' stance was that GDP projection would change, while half didn't believe that it'll change.
• Experts said that they would keep an eye on the statement made by RBI on foreign reserves and tolls by RBI.

In the last 10 meetings, the MPC left the interest rate unchanged and also maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance.

The repo rate, or the short-term lending rate, was last cut on May 22, 2020. Since then, the rate has remained at a historic low of 4 per cent.

In a report this week, the State Bank of India (SBI) said the central bank might increase its inflation projections for fiscal 2022-23 considerably and also lower growth projections.

It expects the RBI to continue with a pause on the short-term lending rate (repo).

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