Explained: The El Nino factor in Indian monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its official report today on this year’s monsoon season, predicting 96 per cent of the average rainfall in 2023. The research also warned about the impacts of EL Nino during the second part of the monsoon in August-September.

In its report, IMD explained that not all El Nino years result in poor monsoons. Additionally, it stated that the equatorial Pacific region's current La Lina conditions, which are typically favourable for the monsoon, had changed to neutral.

IMD will provide the next update on the monsoon in the last week of May.

What is El Nino?

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation's warm phase, known as El Nino, is characterised by a band of warm ocean water that forms in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the region off the Pacific coast of South America. Upwelling is the process by which cold water rises from the deep to replace that warm water. These typical conditions are disrupted by the opposing climate patterns of El Nino. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is the name given to these events by scientists.

El Nino has the potential to affect weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economics on a global scale. El Nino episodes normally last 9-12 months, but can occasionally last for years also. In general, El Nino event happens every 2-7 years, and typically happens more frequently than La Nina.

How does El Nino impact the Indian agricultural system?

The monsoon's volume and intensity, together with the amount of precipitation, have a significant impact on the Indian agricultural system. In India, the effects of La Nina result in enough precipitation, which immediately boosts agricultural productivity.

On the other side, repeated heavy rain in some areas can cause floods, which is bad for both the environment and human life. The increased agricultural production will accelerate the nation's economic development as well.

El Nino can also cause dry, inadequate monsoons in the summer and mild weather over the Indian subcontinent in the winter. As a result, it affects agriculture and results in a situation similar to a draught. Crops including peanuts, maize, guar, castor, moong, tur, and many more suffer greatly under El Nino conditions.