India is on the brink of witnessing another weather phenomenon as a potential cyclone looms over the Bay of Bengal. If this disturbance materialises, it will be dubbed 'Remal,' meaning 'sand' in Arabic.

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Recent days have seen South Peninsular India deluged by pre-monsoon rains, courtesy of a trough and multiple cyclonic circulations. Now, attention is turning to a cyclonic circulation over the Southwest Bay of Bengal coast, set to spawn a low-pressure area on Wednesday, May 22. As it progresses northward, this system could evolve into a depression by Friday, May 24, in the Central Bay of Bengal.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has highlighted a high probability of this system intensifying into a depression within the next 48-72 hours. The big question remains: will it escalate into Cyclone Remal?

Favorable Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Bay of Bengal, currently above 30°C, particularly in central and northern areas where SSTs surpass 32°C, provide the essential ingredients for cyclone genesis.

Meteorologists exercise caution amid conflicting forecasts, though there's consensus that a cyclonic storm is more probable than a severe or very severe cyclonic system. The Weather Channel's meteorological team hints at cyclone formation potential but deems the chances of it intensifying significantly slim.

Naming the Cyclone: 'Remal'

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2020 devised a naming convention for tropical cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, collectively referred to as the North Indian Ocean. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) curated a list of 169 cyclone names for that year. 'Remal' awaits official announcement by IMD, reserved for a cyclonic storm, should one materialise.

Potential impacts and precautions

The potential trajectory of Cyclone Remal remains uncertain, with possibilities ranging from the Indian coast to Bangladesh. However, regardless of its landfall location, heavy rainfall is anticipated along the eastern coast and northeastern states.

The Weather Channel predicts significant precipitation over northeastern India from Sunday to Tuesday, with rainfall totals potentially exceeding 200 mm in Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura during this period.

Advisory for fisherfolk and coastal areas

IMD has issued warnings concerning rough sea conditions and squally winds:

Wind Speeds: Anticipate winds of 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, over the central Bay of Bengal from May 23, extending to the north Bay of Bengal from May 24, with increased speeds of 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph.
Sea Conditions: Expect rough to very rough sea conditions, rendering maritime activities hazardous.
Fisherfolk are strongly advised against venturing into the central Bay of Bengal from May 23 and the north Bay of Bengal from May 24 onward. Those currently at sea should return to the coast by May 23.

As the low-pressure system develops, diligent monitoring persists. Regular updates and alerts will be disseminated to ensure safety and preparedness, especially among coastal communities and marine-dependent individuals. Stay tuned for further developments regarding the potential formation and trajectory of Cyclone Remal, and prioritise safety above all else!