Current & future sentiment scores at historic high: Knight Frank-FICCI-NAREDCO report

The 30th Edition of Knight Frank-FICCI-NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index Q3 2021 (July - September 2021) has cited that both the current and future sentiments of real estate sector have improved across all parameters in Q3 2021, on account of the economic recovery in the making.

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The latest edition of the index captures the rebound in stakeholder sentiments towards the residential and office sector, as the second Covid-19 wave subsided.

In Q3 2021, the Current Sentiment Index score rose to 63 - the best ever, after the dismal score of 35 recorded in Q2 2021. A pick-up in the pace of vaccinations has helped address the fear of a third Covid-19 wave to a great extent. Coupled with better preparedness to handle the pandemic, bouncing back after the lockdowns is becoming the norm of the day. These developments have helped the stakeholders remain positive going forward. The Future Sentiment Index score rose from 56 in Q2 2021 to 72 in Q3 2021, which is also the highest ever in the history of the Index.

Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India said, "The sentiment index is a perfect reflection of the market sentiments, especially as we are amid the festive season. While in Q2 2021, just one quarter ago, sentiments were at the lowest, which have turned around dramatically in a matter of mere 90 days to be one of the highest in Q3 2021. This is reflective of the returning market confidence backed by rising demand. Whether in the residential or the commercial segment, there is a strong sense of optimism due to the improvements in our socio- economic environment."

Raj Menda, Joint Chairman, FICCI Real Estate Committee and Chairman and Corporate Chairman, RMZ Corp said, "The impact of Coronavirus on the Indian real estate sector was stifling to the point that it brought property transactions to a near-halt last year.

"Since then, the market has taken several strides towards recovery, and just when it seemed the revival was not far, the country was struck by another wave which was far more lethal. However, with an aggressive vaccination drive across India, the real estate sector has started showing signs of a sustainable recovery. This is reflected in a recent Knight Frank- FICCI- NAREDCO study, which reports the Future Sentiment score of 72 in Q3 2021, an impressive rise from the Q3 2020 score of 52."

Rajan Bandelkar, President, NAREDCO India and Raunak Group said, "The positive outlook in the overall economy, after the remarkable vaccination drive, and the subsequent reduction in cases of Covid, is bringing cheer to the market this festive season. In recent reports, the real estate sector is the biggest sectoral gainer over the past month, which is a positive sign not only for the sector but also for the ancillaries which are dependent on the growth of this sector."

The high volume of sales and leasing in both the residential and office sector coupled with the ongoing festive season has only enhanced the Future Sentiments of stakeholders for the next six months for all regions. The Future Sentiment score for West Zone has increased from 60 in Q2 2021 to 67 in Q3 2021. For the North Zone, the score has increased from 55 in Q2 2021 to 63 in Q3 2021.

Stakeholder outlook on the office market saw an improvement in Q3 2021 especially with respect to supply and leasing activity. In Q3 2021, 65 per cent of survey respondents expect office leasing to increase in the next six months, significantly up from 40 per cent in Q2 2021. In Q3 2021, 58 per cent survey respondents expected new office supply to improve over the next two quarters, while in Q2 2021, only 37 per cent had opined the same. Rental outlook is also strengthening with 28 per cent of survey respondents in Q3 2021 expecting an increase, compared to 21 per cent in Q2 2021.

In Q3 2021, the optimism for residential market outlook also strengthened with 89 per cent of the survey respondents expecting residential sales to increase in the next six months. This is a sharp increase from the 64 per cent respondents who held this opinion in Q2 2021.

Interestingly, the share of survey respondents that believe sales will decline in the next six months has substantially reduced from 18 per cent in Q2 2021 to 3 per cent in Q3 2021. Residential launches have also started gaining momentum. The share of respondents expecting an increase in new project launches climbed up from 58 per cent in Q2 2021 to 86 per cent in Q3 2021. Regarding residential prices, 66% of the Q3 2021 survey respondents -- up from 45 per cent in Q2 2021 -- expect prices to increase in the next six months.

With respect to credit availability to the real estate sector, the stakeholder outlook continues to remain optimistic in Q3 2021. 61 per cent of the survey respondents expect the credit situation to improve in the next six months, while 30 per cent expect it to remain at current levels.

The real estate sector in India has seen a sharp rise in activities especially in Q3 2021. Office sector recorded a Y-o-Y rise of 168 per cent in office leasing activities recording total of 12.5 million square feet (msf) of office absorption. The residential sector also continued its forward pace with top markets recording sales of 64,010 units in July to September quarter, a rise of 92 per cent year on year.