Commodity traders alert! Experts predict rise in crude oil at MCX, NYMEX

Triggered by US-China dialogue, the dovish approach of the Fed chair, building up of the US inventory levels and dampening of the global economy commodity, researchers have expressed a bull run at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on crude oil. Expressing strong support for crude oil at the Rs 3000/barrel at the MCX, they have predicted that in the next two weeks' time the crude oil will touch the levels of Rs 3,600/barrel. In WTI terms, the crude oil has strong support at the $44-45 per barrel and can reach to $54 per barrel levels soon after breaching the psychological $51 per barrel mark.

Commenting upon the reason for the crude rally at the MCX, Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President at Religare Commodities told Zee Business online, "In NYMEX, crude oil is hovering around $51-52 per barrel and an upside swing of near 7 percent is expected in next two weeks. Hence, at MCX we are expecting the crude oil future to reach Rs 3,600 per barrel in this time span or say by end of January." 

Asked about the global indicators supporting this rally, she added, "Dovish approach of the Fed chair on rate cuts, ease in US-China trade stand-off a building up of the US inventory are some of the major global indicators that further support the crude rally at both MCX and global commodity indices."

However, she advised the commodity traders to maintain a stop loss at Rs 3000 per barrel levels while taking any buy position in crude oil.

Agreeing with Religare Commodities views on crude oil Amit Sajeja, Analyst at the Motilal Oswal Commodities said that crude oil has immediate resistance at Rs 3250 per barrel at MCX. Once it crosses this level and sustains then we can expect further rally. "Immediate target for the crude oil at the MCX is Rs 3250 per barrel.

Once it breaches this target and sustains above this levels, one can expect to touch the Rs 3600 mark by end of January itself. Traders can take their position in crude oil maintaining strict stop loss at Rs 3000 per barrel mark." 

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Sajeja was of the opinion that crude oil price in WTI perspective is trading in the range of $44 to $54 per barrel levels. If the crude oil prices breach the upper range then it is extremely bullish.

However, since the crude oil gets affected by various geopolitical developments too, breach in lower range would be an indication of bear taking over bull in crude oil.

"Half a dollar change of the crude oil prices in the global markets leads to near Rs 30-35 rupee deviation at MCX. So, we need to keep an eye on the global trend of the crude oil prices too," Sajeja concluded.