Brexit impact: Its a 'BUY' for Indian equity market

It was a 'Black Friday' for Indian equity market after Britain voted to leave the European Union. The news of Brexit led Sensex fall by more than 1000 points during the day and finally settled at 600 points down at 26,397.71, its biggest single-day fall in nearly four months. 

As a result, total investor wealth, measured in terms of cumulative market value of all listed stocks, tanked nearly Rs 1.79 lakh crore, said a PTI report.

The rupee also took a sharp plunge of 96 paise (intra-day) against the US dollar to crash below the 68-level, but RBI intervention to infuse liquidity helped the local currency recoup some early losses.

To control the situation, the Reserve Bank of India Governor, Raghuram Rajan on Friday said that he did not expect significant selling from foreign investors in India due to Britain's vote to leave the European Union because of better economic fundamentals and upcoming government reforms.

Also, some experts feel that this volatility will remain in the market for around 10-12 days and equity market will feel the after shocks. But, at the same time, this is also the right time to 'BUY' and invest in the market.

Here's why?

Rise in Mutual Funds transactions

When the Brexit news trickled in, it created lot of panic in the market. But, Mutual Fund segment saw a substantial rise in transactions by the investors as they saw this as buying opportunity. 

According to a Business Standard report, sector officials said that there was nearly five-fold rise in the number of transactions. The transactions included systematic investment plans (SIPs), heavy investments and new applications. 

The additional purchases in mutual fund industry has set an example of buying opportunities when the market is going through 'turbulence' phase.

As per the report, Sunil Singhania, CIO of Reliance MF, said, "There was no panic among retail investors. Rather, they have been buying. Our markets lost the past few days’ gain today and it is not so that there was a catastrophe kind of situation".

Further, Chandresh Nigam, MD & CEO, Axis Mutual Fund said it is a good buying opportunity with 3-5 years perspective. He believes that the Indian economy is well-prepared to tackle this situation in the medium term.

Goods and Service Tax (GST) Bill

The Monsoon Session of Parliament is likely to begin in the third week of July and end by mid August, with the Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs set to meet on 29 June to decide on the schedule, said a PTI report.

With increased strength and support from some opposition parties in Rajya Sabha, the government is keen to get the GST Bill, which has been pending for a long time now, passed in this session in the Upper House.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has recently claimed that almost all the states have agreed to support GST.

The hopes of passage of GST Bill, will play an important role to tackle the equity market. And, the market will bounce back if the bill gets passed in this parliament session.

Monsoon

As predicted by the weather forecast agencies, the country will observe good monsoon this year. Till now, most part of the country has witnessed rains already. 

Agriculture, which contributes 15% to India's GDP and employs about 60% of the country's population, is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40% of the cultivable area is under irrigation. Due to poor monsoon in 2015-16 crop year (July-June) 10 states have declared drought and the Centre had sanctioned about Rs 10,000 crore by way of relief to help the farmers.

But this time, India Meteorological Department said there are 96% chances are that the rainfall this year would be normal to excess.

Enough Forex to survive

The country's foreign exchange reserves and import cover of more than a year would be sufficient in managing the temporary effects of Brexit, said RBI official.

"India's forex reserves of more than $360 billion and import cover of more than a year would be adequate in managing the temporary effects of the recent Brexit, if at all there is an impact," RBI Regional Director, Thiruvananthapuram, SMN Swamy, said