BJP vs Congress: Assembly Election results today! This is what market wants; who will win, know state-wise analysis

Countdown has begin and all eyes are watching two developed parties Congress and BJP, as today the outcome of assembly elections will be announced.Ahead of the result, markets have already shown a negative sentiment, as in previous trading session, BSE Sensex cracked below the 35,000 mark to close at 34,959.72. The broader NSE Nifty fell 205.25 points, or 1.92 per cent, to 10,488.45.The benchmark Sensex plummeted 714 points as investors panicked over exit polls suggesting the Congress is giving a tough fight to the ruling BJP in state elections. The bruised rupee and weak global cues also further dampened sentiment. 

Now it is being believed that, markets are hoping for a Modi-government win, however, analysts show a different picture which is scary and panicking. Let's find out how BJP and Congress Party will fare in this assembly elections. 

Election results will be announced for five states namely Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. 

Both BJP and Congress manifestors have revolved around farmer issues and employement as major agenda. 

It needs to be noted that, both BJP and Congress has promised for farm loan waivers of up to Rs 2 lakh per farmer. However, additionally, the Congress has also talked about pensions for farmers and loan subsidy/GST removal on agri equipment.

Apart from this, the rivals have also announced unemployment allowance of Rs3,500-5,000/month for eligible youth above the age of 21.

Subsequently, the parties also have a vision for tourism in the states with various schemes. 

Meanwhile, the BJP party under rule of Prime Minister Narendra Modi have also focused on  specific infrastructure projects like large greenfield roads in MP, irrigation/canal projects and artificial sea port for Rajasthan.

On the other hand, the Congress has spoken on ‘Ram path’ – an initiative in the state of MP leveraging on the current issue of Ram temple.

Well who will win in this assembly elections will be keenly watched. For now, let's have an understanding of how will BJP and Congress fare in these states, as per CLSA. 

Know key updates of today's assembly election result announcement:

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Rajasthan! 

Out of the six exit polls available so far, five are predicting a win for the Congress in Rajasthan.

At an average Congress is expected to win 115 of the 200 seats in the state and the BJP is likely to win 76 seats.

Rajasthan has a history of alternating between the Congress and BJP and that trend is likely to continue.

MP and Chhattisgarh! 

Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP has been in power for the last 15 years and is facing high anti-incumbency, are likely to see a close finish.

Of the seven exit polls available so far, five are predicting a win for the Congress, while the other two are showing a BJP win in MP.

Margin of victory is thin for both parties in all the polls. At an average, BJP is expected to win 109 seats and Congress 113. The majority is 116 and in a hung parliament situation, the BSP which is the key third party could play an important role.

Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, of the 90 seats, BJP is projected to get 42, while Congress could get 41 seats. Margin of victory is narrow in this case as well. Here again, the BSP with its partner JCC is likely to get most of the remaining seats and could act as a kingmaker.

Telangana! 

All the exit polls are forecasting the ruling TRS to get the highest number of seats and get close to the majority of 60 seats.

In the event of a shortfall, the possibility of BJP support to TRS exists, which can have implications for the national elections also.

Finally, in regards to market CLSA said, "If the BJP ends up losing two of these three states, it will be a negative for market sentiment."

CLSA further added that, a look at the manifestos of both the national parties for these states suggest that farmers’ demands and jobs are going to be the top-two issues for the 2019 elections and farm loan waivers and other sops to farmers will take centre-stage.