India GDP Q4 Growth Highlights: India's economic growth at 6.1% in Q4, full-year expansion at 7.2%

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: What expert says about India's Q4 GDP numbers

Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer, MarketsMojo, said that the GDP numbers released today are good but uncertainly over the Indian economy still looms large.

According to recent data, India's GDP for the January to March quarter has exceeded expectations, growing at a rate of 6.1 per cent compared to the estimated growth of just above 5 percent. This positive development is certainly good news for the Indian economy. However, there are ongoing challenges for the fiscal year 2024, as the global economy is slowing down, leading to lower exports for India over the past three months. The lack of strong private capital expenditure also poses a hurdle for sustaining the same growth pace as in the previous fiscal year. In fact, several agencies have revised India's GDP forecast downward, and the uncertainty surrounding the monsoon further adds to potential headwinds that the Indian economy might face in FY2024.

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: What expert says about India's GDP numbers

Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers

"The GDP growth for the quarter ending March 2023 and the year 2022-23 surprised positively. The main reason for the better-than-expected performance has been significant traction in fixed investment investment and exports on the demand side and construction and trade, hotel & hospitality on the supply side. Private consumption remains the main source of disappointment. Going forward, we expect India's growth to remain around 6% for the financial year ending March 2024. Despite the likely slow down during the current financial year, we expect at least modest pickup in private consumption demand. The compulsions of fiscal consolidation can depress final consumption demand by the government. Barring better-than-expected acceleration in private capital expenditure, we would also expect deceleration in the growth of fixed investment."

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: What expert says about India's GDP numbers

Raghvendra Nath, MD, Ladderup Wealth Management Pvt. Ltd., said, "India’s GDP growth for FY23 came in at 7.2% vs 9.1% in FY22, better than the market expectations and RBI’s estimate of 7%. Among the major world economies, India is growing at one of the fastest rates. Real GDP for FY22-23 at constant prices is estimated to be around Rs 160.06 lakh crore. Per Capita GDP of India grew by 6.1% to Rs 1.15 lakh. GDP growth for Q4 was 6.1% vs a market expectation of 5.5%. The GDP growth was led by the construction sector, which grew at the fastest pace of 10.4%, followed by trade, hotels and transportation, growing at 9.1%. The domestic economy is showing strong resilience against the global turmoil as well as monetary tightening as reflected in the strong GDP growth.”

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: PM Modi says robust GDP performance exemplifies promising trajectory of India's economy
 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was gung-ho about the new GDP numbers, which exceeded expectations. He said in a tweet: "The 2022-23 GDP growth figures underscore the resilience of the Indian economy amidst global challenges. This robust performance along with overall optimism and compelling macro-economic indicators, exemplify the promising trajectory of our economy and the tenacity of our people."

The 2022-23 GDP growth figures underscore the resilience of the Indian economy amidst global challenges. This robust performance along with overall optimism and compelling macro-economic indicators, exemplify the promising trajectory of our economy and the tenacity of our people.

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) May 31, 2023

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: What expert says about India's GDP numbers 
 

Amit Jain, CMD, Arkade Group, said positive GDP numbers will encourage a status quo on policy rates. "Q4 FY23 GDP at 6.1% is above the expected lines. The growth rate for FY23 at 7.2 percent is also marginally higher than the consensus. Construction, Finance, Trade and Hospitality sectors have contributed positively to GDP growth. The positive GDP data will encourage a status quo on policy rates as well as the policy stance. Going forward these factors and improving sentiment will positively impact demand in sectors like housing and real estate."

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: What expert says about India's GPD numbers
 

Mohit Ralhan, Chief Executive Officer, TIW Capital, says the March quarter numbers establish India among the fastest-growing economies in the world. "The March quarter growth has come out better than estimates, cementing India's position among the fastest-growing major economies of the world. The economy grew 6.1% YoY in Q4 FY 2023, much higher than 4.5% YoY in the previous quarter. The most critical was the growth in private investment activity. Gross fixed capital formation was up 8.9%, becoming the major growth driver while government expenditure took a back seat."

He said that the agriculture and manufacturing sectors boosted India's growth in the fourth quarter. "Robust exports and lower imports also helped growth as the trade balance came in largely flat in the fourth quarter. Agriculture grew 5.5% while manufacturing growth came in at 4.5%, a substantial improvement after two consecutive quarters of decline. Construction and other contact-intensive services continued to demonstrate robust growth. It augurs well for the coming quarters. While RBI expects growth to moderate to 6.5% YoY in FY 2024 owing to global factors, still, India will remain amongst the fastest growing major economy in the world and may surprise on the upside."

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: What expert says about GPD numbers

Ms. Anitha Rangan, Economist, Equirus, says, "India FY23 GDP came in at 7.2%, much higher than street estimate of sub-7% and second advance estimate of 7%, indicating that India growth despite external headwinds is going strong. GVA alongside came in at 7%. From the industry side, the revision comes from better-than-expected agriculture output and mining and an upward revision in manufacturing with some revival in Q4 manufacturing, perhaps led by net exports showing some upside (lower oil, rupee weakness)."
 
Speaking about the consumption factor, she said, "From the expenditure side, the upside is from private consumption and capex which are higher than estimate while government consumption is slower. Net exports was also better than expected. This is again a reflection of on-ground activities wherein domestic demand is resilient, and government continues to heavy lift the capex spending while government is trying to cap its revenue spending consciously to curtail fiscal deficit."
 
She further said, "Overall, better than expected GDP data is again a testimony of India’s economic resilience when rest of the world is on a recession or slowdown path. While external headwinds continue to persist, India is likely to remain the shining star into this year and beyond."

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: Capex to drive growth in FY24: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says Capex will drive the growth of the country in FY23-24.

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: Rural demand is improving: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says rural demand in the current fiscal year is improving.

Expect an upward revision of 2022-23 GDP numbers, 6.5% GDP growth in 2023-24 and see risks evenly balanced: Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran

Good crop harvest and easing commodity prices to moderate India's inflation in 2023-24, he adds.

(file photo) pic.twitter.com/j6OOT5PNhf

— ANI (@ANI) May 31, 2023

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: Private sector capital formation is beginning to unfold: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says private sector capital formation is beginning to unfold as indicated by March financial number.

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: India poised for another year of solid economic performance: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran opines that India's growth prospects look brighter and the country is poised for another year of solid economic performance.

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: Good crop harvest and easing commodity prices to moderate inflation: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says good crop harvest and easing commodity prices will moderate India's inflation in 2023-24.

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: Expect an upward revision of 2022-23 GDP numbers: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says an upward revision of 2022-23 GDP numbers are expected, 6.5 per cent GDP growth in 2023-24. He says he also sees risks evenly balanced.

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: Inflation expected to moderate to 5% in current financial year: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says inflation in the country is expected to moderate to 5% in current financial year

India GDP Q4 LIVE Updates: What expert says about GDP numbers 

Suman Bannerjee, CIO, Hedonova, a US-based Hedge Fund, said: "The GDP figures surpassing expectations doesn't surprise me. The Rupee has shown relative weakness against the dollar over the past year, while there's been a significant upsurge in export volumes. Moreover, we have been able to decrease our oil import expenses due to our advantageous ties with Russia. This scenario has resulted in a decrease in the balance of payments account, thus contributing to a boost in GDP. I am also inclined to agree with the projected 7% growth for the forthcoming year. The Reserve Bank of India has performed admirably by controlling inflation and maintaining relatively lower interest rates. An environment characterised by moderate inflation and low interest rates fosters business activities, which I believe will contribute to a GDP growth of 7.5% in the coming year."