China's July exports fall 14.5% y/y, imports down 12.4%

China export data: China's exports fell 14.5 per cent in July year-on-year, while imports contracted 12.4 per cent, customs data showed on Tuesday, in the worst showing for outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy since February 2020. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a 12.5 per cent fall in exports and a 5.0 per cent drop in imports.

KEY POINTS:

• Soybeans: July imports at 9.73 mmt, up 23.5 per cent y/y; Jan-July imports at 62.3 mmt, up 15 per cent y/y
• Crude oil: July imports at 43.69 mmt, up 17 per cent y/y; Jan-July imports at 326 mmt, up 12.4 per cent y/y
• Iron ore: July imports at 93.48 mmt, up 2.5 per cent y/y; Jan-July imports at 669 mmt, up 6.9 per cent y/y
• Copper: July imports at 451,159 mt, down 2.7 per cent y/y

Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.

COMMENT ON IRON ORE: CAI YONGZHENG, DIRECTOR AT JIANGSU FUSHI DATA RESEARCH INSTITUTE, NANJING

"The month-on-month fall in imported (iron ore) volume in July is totally in line with our expectation as overseas shipments in the month fell. Also, the environmental restrictions (in Tangshan) hampered demand. Moreover, mills remained cautious about purchasing volumes as margins only mildly improved within the month."

COMMENT ON CRUDE: EMMA LI, CHINA CRUDE OIL ANALYST AT VORTEXA, SINGAPORE

"The month-on-month decline was led by lower imports from the big-3 crude exporters, namely the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have cut exports amid reduced production targets and/ or higher domestic demand."

COMMENT ON COPPER: LYNN ZHAO, COMMODITY STRATEGIST AT MACQUARIE, SHANGHAI.

"The decline in import is due to closed price arbitrage, with LME price outperforming SHFE and domestic production running at a higher rate, and import from Africa yet to jump due to logistics constraints at its ports."

China is the world's biggest crude oil importer and top buyer of coal, iron ore and soybeans.

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