China's economy grew 5.3% in first quarter, beating expectations, though weak spots remain

China’s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter of the year with help from policies and stronger demand, though signs of weakness in the troubled housing market persisted.

The world’s second-largest economy expanded at a 5.3 per cent annual pace in January-March, beating analysts’ forecasts of about 4.8 per cent, data released Tuesday showed.

Compared to the previous quarter, the economy grew 1.6 per cent. China’s economy has struggled to bounce back from the COVID-19 pandemic but gained momentum late last year as government policies to help the housing market and boost investment took effect. 

However, Tuesday's better-than-expected data came days after China reported its exports sank 7.5 per cent in March compared to the year before, while imports also weakened. Inflation cooled, reflecting deflationary pressures resulting from slack demand amid a crisis in the property sector.Investment in property developments fell 9.5 per cent from a year earlier in January-March, compared with a decline of 9 per cent in the previous quarter. 

“The investment and sales of real estate in the first quarter are indeed not very optimistic. The real estate market is still in a process of adjustment,” Sheng Laiyun, deputy commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters in Beijing.

Sheng also acknowledged that while growth was stronger than anticipated, it was uneven. Investment in infrastructure such as roads and bridges rose 6.5 per cent year-on-year after a 6 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

Fixed investment, in factories and equipment, grew 4.5 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier, up from 4.2 per cet in the previous quarter. 

China's leaders have been trying to recalibrate growth away from investment spending and toward a greater reliance on consumer demand, similar to other major economies.While retail sales climbed 4.7 per cent in January-March, growth in March was only 3.1 per cent year-on-year.

“Looking at the degree of recovery, we have found that the recovery of consumption is not as good as production, and the recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises is not as good as that of large enterprises, so there is a clear imbalance in the economic recovery," Sheng said. 

Industrial output for the first quarter was up 6.1 per cent compared to the same time last year, but it rose only 4.5 per cent in March.

The strong growth in January-March was supported by “broad manufacturing outperformance,” festivities-boosted household spending due to the Lunar New Year holidays and policies that helped boost investments, according to China economist Louise Loo of Oxford Economics.“However, ‘standalone’ March activity indicators suggest weakness coming through post-Lunar New Year,” she said. 

“External demand conditions also remain unpredictable, as seen in March’s sharp export underperformance,”Loo noted that an unwinding of excess inventory, normalization of household spending after the holidays, and a cautious approach to government spending and other stimulus will affect growth in this quarter.

Policymakers have unveiled a raft of fiscal and monetary policy measures as Beijing seeks to boost the economy. China has set an ambitious gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of about 5 per cent for 2024.Such strong growth usually would push share prices across the region higher. 

But on Tuesday, Asian shares fell sharply after stocks retreated on Wall Street. The Shanghai Composite index lost 1.47 per cent and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 2.1 per cent. The benchmark for the smaller market in Shenzhen, in southern China, lost 3.8 per cent. 

Stronger growth in the region's biggest economy normally would be seen as a positive for its neighbors, which increasingly rely on demand from China to power their own economies. However, strong growth figures are also viewed as a signal that the government will hold back on further stimulus.

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