Monsoon Rainfall Weather Forecast: IMD releases rain, temperature projections for July 2024; will heatwave-like conditions persist?
Monsoon weather forecast July 2024 IMD, temperature prediction, heatwave update: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) - the country's weather office - has predicted above-normal precipitation over much of the country during the current month of July, with rains expected to be at more than 106 per cent of a long-period average (LPA) - average values of meteorological parameters over a long-term period used as a benchmark to measure normal or abnormal conditions.
Monsoon weather forecast July 2024 IMD, temperature prediction, heatwave update: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) - the nation's primary weather forecasting agency - has forecast above-normal rainfall across India for July. According to its predictions, rainfall is expected to exceed 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), which serves as a benchmark derived from historical meteorological data spanning multiple decades. This LPA provides a standard to gauge deviations from normal weather patterns.
The anticipated above-average precipitation signifies potentially wetter conditions than typical for this time of year, impacting agriculture, water resources, and overall climate patterns across the country.
Here are key takeaways from the IMD's July outlook for the country's crucial monsoon season:
July IMD Rainfall Forecast | Normal to above-normal rainfall predicted in most parts of India, says IMD
The IMD has predicted normal to above-normal rainfall over most parts of the country.
July Monsoon Forecast | Several other parts may receive below-normal rainfall, says IMD
The IMD has also said that many parts of Northeast India and some parts of Northwest, East and Southeast peninsular India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
IMD to release another rainfall forecast in July-end
The weather office will issue a separate rainfall forecast in the second half of the season - for August and September - and towards the end of July 2024.
Why do normal monsoon rains matter?
Normal monsoon rains are crucial for the Indian economy as they directly impact agricultural production, rural incomes, food security, inflation levels, industrial demand, and overall economic growth.
Normal monsoon rainfall plays a vital role in sustaining livelihoods, supporting consumption patterns, and ensuring stability in both rural and urban economies.
Rainfall is crucial for rural economy
The country's agricultural sector heavily relies on the monsoon season for irrigation, ensuring successful crop growth and food production. A good monsoon season leads to higher agricultural output, contributing to food security and stable prices, and boosting the rural economy.
All in all, monsoon rains are a lifeline for the country's economy, influencing various sectors and livelihoods.
IMD Temperature Forecast | Above-normal minimum temperatures most likely in many parts
Barring some regions of the northwest and adjoining areas of Central India and some pockets of South-Eastern Peninsular India where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely, the IMD has predicted above-normal minimum temperatures over many parts of the country.
IMD Temperature Forecast | Where can you expect above-normal temperatures?
The weather forecaster has predicted above-normal maximum temperatures over many parts of Central India, East and Northeast India, and along the west coast.
IMD Sea Surface Temperature Forecast | El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions over equatorial Pacific
The IMD has mentioned above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial western and central Pacific Ocean and below-average readings over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season, according to the weather agency.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevailing over Indian Ocean: IMD
The latest climate model forecasts indicate neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season, according to the IMD.
IOD is a climate phenomenon characterised by anomalies in sea surface temperatures in different parts of the Indian Ocean that influence the weather patterns over the Indian subcontinent and surrounding regions.
Southwest monsoon covered entire country on July 2
Meanwhile, the Southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 2, the IMD said separately on microblogging website X (formerly Twitter).
What are La Nina and El Nino conditions?
La Nina and El Nino are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, influencing global weather patterns. La Nina brings cooler sea surface temperatures, leading to above-average rainfall in India, whereas El Nino results in warmer sea surface temperatures, causing drier conditions and potential droughts in the country, potentially weakening the monsoon.