Key Takeaways From RBI MPC Meeting: Repo rate, CPI inflation, GDP forecasts, UPI transaction limits, NBFC, banks and more

Shaktikanta Das-led MPC maintained the repo rate at 6.50 per cent for the 10th consecutive time. 

MPC has changed the policy stance to 'neutral'. Earlier, it was 'withdrawal for accommodation' for nine consecutive quarters.

The RBI MPC has maintained the GDP forecast for FY25 at 7.20 per cent. 

The RBI has revised GDP forecasts for all four quarters.
For Q2FY25, it has reduced the GDP forecast to 7 per cent from 7.20 per cent.

For Q3FY25, the Central Bank has raised the GDP forecast to 7.40 per cent from 7.30 per cent.

For Q4FY25, the RBI has raised the GDP forecast to 7.40 per cent from 7.20 per cent.   

For Q1FY26, it has raised the GDP forecast to 7.30 per cent from 7.20 per cent.   

The RBI has also kept the CPI inflation estimate unchanged at 4.5 per cent. Das said that a rise in global food and metal prices along with volatility in crude oil prices presents upside risks to India’s CPI inflation trajectory. He, however, said that CPI for September is expected to see a big jump due to unfavourable base effects, and pick-up in food price momentum.

The RBI has also revised CPI inflation estimates for all four quarters.
For Q2FY25, it has reduced the CPI inflation forecast from 4.4 per cent to 4.1 per cent.

For Q3FY25, it has increased the CPI inflation forecast from 4.7 per cent to 4.8 per cent.

For Q4FY25, it has reduced the CPI inflation forecast from 4.3 per cent to 4.2 per cent.   

For Q1FY26, it has reduced the CPI inflation forecast from 4.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent.

The RBI governor says that the Central Bank needs to monitor evolving conditions for disinflationary impulses. He says that stress has build a few unsecured loan segments. The RBI is closely monitoring the situation and will take necessary measures on unsecured lending, Das adds.

Speaking about non-banking financial companies, Das says that while the overall NBFC sector remains healthy, there are a few outliers. He says that the Central Bank is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take action if necessary. "Banks and NBFCs need to carefully assess their individual exposures in unsecured segments. Some NBFCs are aggressively pursuing growth without proper administration. Self-correction by NBFCs could be the desired action," Das says during his speech.

The RBI Governor says that the Central Bank will be nimble and flexible in liquidity management operations.

To encourage wider adoption of UPI, Das says the MPC has decided to enhance the per-transaction limit in UPI123Pay from Rs 5,000 to Rs 10,000; and (ii) increase the UPI Lite wallet limit from Rs 2,000 to Rs 5,000 and per-transaction limit from Rs 500 to Rs 1,000.