Return of investor interest to China, erratic monsoon poses challenges for Indian markets: Experts

The Nifty has been stuck in the range of 19,350–19,550 and is lacking direction, down 0.5 per cent over the last five trading sessions, says Jaykrishna Gandhi, Head of Business Development, Institutional Equities, Emkay Global Financial Services.

Mid/Small caps however have continued to rally and valuations are now getting expensive adding to the discomfort of institutional investors, he added.

Erratic monsoon, especially with weaker August (lowest rainfall in 122 years) can further add to concerns in the quarters to come, he said. Globally, the US markets have rallied a bit on back encouraging data with regard to Job openings wherein employers filed for less than expected job opening hinting at an economy which is cooling.

Thus, easing some fears from Chair Powell's Jackson hole speech. “On the other hand, we are seeing investor interest is returning back to China as the government is now increasingly taking steps to curb the sharp slow down in industrial activity along with property slowdown,” he added.

Recent activities like decline in tax on trading, lowering of rates are all directed at restoring investor confidence. In the event flows continue to move towards China, India which has already seen FII selling can see a surge in the same which if not met by consistent retail flows can result in a correction, he said.

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