RBI sees CPI inflation easing to 4.5% in 2024-25

The RBI has projected the country's inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 4.5 per cent for 2024-25 in the backdrop of an above-average monsoon expected this year and easing of supply chain pressures.

“Headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24. The easing of supply chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation and early indications of an above normal southwest monsoon augur well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25,” the RBI said in its annual report released on Thursday.

However, the increasing incidence of climate shocks impart considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook. 

Low reservoir levels, especially in the southern states and the outlook of above-normal temperatures during the initial months of 2024-25 need close monitoring, according to the report.

“The volatility in international crude oil prices, the persisting geopolitical tensions and elevated global financial market volatility also pose upward risk to the inflation trajectory. Taking into account these factors, CPI inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent with risks evenly balanced,” the report states.

The RBI has also highlighted the need to continue with the existing monetary stance to keep inflation under control.

“As the path of disinflation needs to be sustained till inflation reaches the 4 per cent target on a durable basis, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) in its April 2024 meeting, kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent and noted that monetary policy must continue to be actively disinflationary to ensure anchoring of inflation expectations and fuller transmission. The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to the target, while supporting growth,” the report observes.

The Reserve Bank said that it will remain “nimble and flexible” in its liquidity management through main and fine-tuning operations, both repo and reverse repo. 

It will deploy an appropriate mix of instruments to modulate frictional as well as durable liquidity to ensure that money market interest rates evolve in an orderly manner so that financial stability is preserved.