Will Shaktikanta Das-led MPC cut repo rate on Friday? What you can expect in 2024’s last policy review

Will the RBI announce a rate cut on December 6? On Wednesday, December 4, the Reserve Bank of India Governor-led Monetary Policy Committee—the central bank’s rate-deciding panel—began its last bi-monthly review meeting of the year. Once again, the question on everyone’s mind is: Will there be a repo rate cut this time? If not the repo rate, will the MPC decide to tweak any other key rate? The December 4-6 review comes amid 7-quarter low GDP growth and sticky inflation, well beyond the upper end of the RBI’s tolerance range of 2-4 per cent. 

When will RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announce the policy decisions?

As the tradition goes, the RBI Governor is set to announce the policy decisions at 10 am. 

Coming up:
Monetary Policy Statement by #RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta
on December 06, 2024, at 10:00 am Watch live at: https://t.co/IlVH3hYA5d
Live telecast of the Post-policy press conference at 12:00… pic.twitter.com/7cAan1v3TB

— ReserveBankOfIndia (@RBI) December 5, 2024

The RBI Governor will also address a customary post-policy press conference at noon. 

Will there be a rate cut on December 6?

Most economists believe there will be no change in the upcoming policy statement. 

According to Zee Business research, eight in every 10 economists polled expect no change in the repo rate in the December review.

Foreign brokerage Nomura has maintained an out-of-consensus call, expecting a 25-basis-point reduction in the repo rate, to 6.25 per cent, on December 6. 

Six out of every 10 economists polled expect a reduction in the cash reserve ratio in the December policy, according to the research.  

ALSO READ: What is CRR? Analysts expect CRR to be lowered in RBI's December policy review

Economists are also divided over the timing of the next rate cut. While six out of every 10 economists expect the first rate cut to be in February, two expect it in December itself, and the remaining two neither in December nor February. 

Can you expect the RBI to change its GDP and inflation forecasts?

All of the economists polled expect the RBI to tweak its inflation as well as GDP forecasts. 

What happened in the October policy review?

In the October bi-monthly review, the MPC unanimously switched to a 'neutral' policy stance from 'withdrawal of accommodation' while voting 5:1 to keep the repo rate intact. 

A neutral stance allows the RBI to move on either side with rates based on domestic macroeconomic conditions.

Additionally, the RBI maintained its full-year GDP and inflation projections at 7.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively.

ALSO READ: RBI October MPC Review: No change in repo rate, stance revised to 'neutral', announces Shaktikanta Das