Can you expect RBI to announce a rate cut on Friday?

RBI June Meeting Preview: Can you expect RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das to announce a rate cut on June 7? The RBI's all-powerful Monetary Policy Committee is all set to reveal its decision at 10 am on Friday, June 7, the final day of a bi-monthly review that began on Wednesday. The event comes days after official data showed the country's economy expanded at a faster-than-expected rate of 7.8 per cent in the January-March quarter, powered by growth in its key manufacturing sector.

According to economists polled by Zee Business, the RBI is expected to keep the repo rate - the key interest rate at which it lends money to commercial banks - unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the June review. The central bank has maintained the key lending rate at this level since February last year.   

Coming up:
Monetary Policy statement by #RBI Governor @DasShaktikanta
on June 07, 2024, at 10:00 am.
Watch live at: https://t.co/0yUZakOEyM
Post policy press conference telecast at 12:00 pm on the same day at https://t.co/NzKpjpoOGG#rbipolicy #rbigovernor #rbitoday… pic.twitter.com/GhV1FWI0Kg

— ReserveBankOfIndia (@RBI) June 6, 2024

Here are 10 other important things to know ahead of the June MPC review:  

• Repo rate and stance: While all of the economists polled expect no change in the repo rate in the June 7 statement, four-fifths of them expect no change in the policy stance as well, according to Zee Business research. The MPC's policy stance stands at "withdrawal of accommodation". 
• When will the first cut be announced in the current cycle? While six out of every 10 economists polled expect the first rate cut to be announced in the December policy, three expect it in October and one in 2025, according to the research. 
• How many rate cuts this year? While 70 per cent of the economists expect one rate cut this calendar year, 20 per cent expect two, and the remaining 10 per cent expect none, according to the poll. 
• Will the RBI change its inflation forecast? Four-fifths of the economists expect the RBI to maintain its inflation projections in the June review, according to the poll. 
• Will it tweak its GDP forecast? Economists are divided on whether the RBI will tweak its GDP projections.  
• GDP projection: Currently, the RBI estimates GDP expansion to average at 7.0 per cent in 2024-25 citing "evenly balanced" risks. It projects GDP growth at 7.1 per cent in Q1, 6.9 per cent in Q2, 7.0 per cent in Q3, and 7.0 per cent in Q4.
• Inflation estimate: The central bank estimates consumer inflation at 4.5 per cent in FY25 (4.9 per cent in Q1, 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3 and 4.5 per cent in Q4).  
• "The strong growth momentum, together with our GDP projections for 2024-25, give us the policy space to unwaveringly focus on price stability," the MPC wrote in its April review. The RBI tracks consumer inflation data primarily while formulating its monetary policy. 
• Cash reserve ratio (CRR): None of the economists expects a change in the cash reserve ratio - a key ratio that determines the portion of deposits that commercial banks are required to park with the RBI - in the June review. 
• India finished the financial year 2023-24 with economic growth of 8.2 per cent - the highest among large economies around the world, 60 bps higher than an earlier official estimate.

With agency inputs