Merchandise exports to hit USD 111.7 bn, non-oil exports at USD 89.8 bn in Q2 FY25: Exim Bank

The Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) has projected that the country's total merchandise exports are expected to reach USD 111.7 billion, marking a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.2 percent and non-oil exports are anticipated to amount to USD 89.8 billion, reflecting a y-o-y growth of 6.26 percent in the second quarter (July-September) of the fiscal year 2025.

The quarterly report of Exim Bank suggests that the country's economy continues to demonstrate strong activity, driven by sustained momentum in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Additionally, expected global monetary easing and improving demand prospects from trading partners are likely to bolster export performance.

However, the forecast is not without risks. Uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical tensions, the ongoing crisis in West Asia, global supply chain disruptions, and increasing geo-economic fragmentation pose potential challenges that could impact these projections. India's merchandise and non-oil export sectors have shown positive growth for three consecutive quarters, a trend that is expected to persist into Q2 FY2025.

The forecasts for growth in India's merchandise and non-oil exports are part of India Exim Bank's quarterly reports, which are released during the first fortnight of May, August, November, and February, covering the corresponding quarters. These projections are based on the bank's proprietary Export Leading Index (ELI) model.

The next forecast, covering the third quarter of FY2025 (October-December 2024), is scheduled for release in the first fortnight of November 2024. The ELI model, developed by India Exim Bank as part of its ongoing research initiatives, serves as a leading indicator for tracking and forecasting movements in India's exports. It incorporates a wide range of external and domestic factors that can influence the country's export performance.

The model and its results are subject to regular review and validation by a standing technical committee of domain experts, including Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University; Professor NR Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics; and Professor C Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies.