India's retail inflation softens and align with RBI's 4 percent target

Breaching 5 percent in June, the retail inflation rate in India softened drastically in July. According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Monday, retail inflation or the Consumer Price Index in July was at 3.54 percent. In June, taking a departure from the moderation it witnessed in the past months, it rose to 5.08 percent, pushed by rising food prices.

In July, there was a sharp decline in the year-on-year inflation rate based on the All India Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the lowest in the last 59 months. The year-on-year inflation rate based on the All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) number is 3.54 percent (Provisional) for the month of July 2024. The corresponding inflation rate for rural and urban is 4.10 percent and 2.98 percent, respectively.

Food inflation for July 2024 is the lowest since June 2023. The year-on-year inflation rate based on the All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) number is 5.42 percent (Provisional) for the month of July 2024. The corresponding inflation rate for rural and urban is 5.89 percent and 4.63 percent, respectively.

Rising food prices continued to be a headache for Indian consumers with the inflation rate in the food segment almost doubling year-on-year in June. The food inflation had almost doubled to 8.36 percent in June, versus 4.63 percent reported same month of 2023. Food prices continue to remain a pain point for the policymakers in India, who wish to bring retail inflation to 4 percent on a sustainable basis.

But today's inflation data shows the inflation has aligned with the intended target. Annual retail inflation in May was at a 12-month low of 4.75 percent, marginally down from 4.83 percent in April. The retail inflation or Consumer Price Index, in December last year was 5.7 percent, and since was moderating.

The retail inflation in India was in RBI's 2-6 percent comfort level but was above the ideal 4 percent scenario. Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has largely managed to steer its inflation trajectory quite well.

The eased month-on-month retail inflation, barring June, came on the heels of RBI having maintained the status quo in the repo rate for the ninth straight occasion. Barring the recent pauses, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively since May 2022 in the fight against inflation.

Raising interest rates is a monetary policy instrument that typically helps suppress demand in the economy, thereby helping the inflation rate decline. The repo rate is the rate of interest at which the RBI lends to other banks.