India GDP growth at 7.8% in Q4, better than economists' expectations; FY242 expansion at 8.2%

India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8 per cent in the January-March period, better than economists' expectations, official data showed on Friday. 

According to Zee Business research, the country's GDP was estimated to expand 6.7 per cent in the fourth and final quarter of the financial year 2023-24. 

Real GDP—or GDP at constant prices—is estimated to attain a level of Rs 173.82 lakh crore in FY24, higher than an earlier revised estimate of Rs 160.71 lakh crore, according to the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.

The latest quarterly GDP reading took expansion for the entire financial year 2023-24 to 8.2 per cent, as against 7.0 per cent the previous year.

"While the growth in India’s GDP and GVA moderated to a four-quarter low of 7.8 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively, in Q4 FY2024, from the revised prints of 8.6 per cent and 6.8 per cent in Q3, it exceeded both our and market expectations... With such a high growth of net indirect taxes unlikely to sustain in FY2025, we expect GDP and GVA growth to print closer to each other, especially in terms of the annual numbers," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head of Research and Outreach at ICRA.

"The sequential deceleration in GVA growth was largely driven by the industrial sector, reflecting both a moderation in volume growth as well as the narrowing deflation in industrial raw material inputs in Q4 FY2024 vis-a-vis Q3. Nevertheless, the expansion in manufacturing and construction remained quite robust, printing at above 8.0 per cent in the quarter," Nair said. 

Here's how the economy has expanded over the past three years: 

Image: Statistics ministry 

"With transient factors likely to dampen growth in H1 FY2025, we expect the GDP growth to decelerate from the 8.2% recorded in FY2024," the economist added. 

The quarterly and yearly GDP readings come days ahead of the much-anticipated outcome of a mega, six-week-long polling exercise to elect a new administration for the world's largest democracy. The data for the first quarter of FY25 (April-June) will be released in August-end.

Meanwhile, separate official data showed that eight core industries registered growth of 6.2 per cent in their output in April, with record expansion in the areas of electricity, natural gas, coal, steel, refinery products, crude oil and cement. The eight industries comprise cement, coal, crude oil, electricity, fertilisers, natural gas, petroleum refinery products and steel.