Growth projection of 7% for current fiscal very realistic: CEA Anantha Nageswaran

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said India needs to grow at 4-4.1 per cent in the March quarter to achieve 7 per cent real GDP growth rate for the full financial year.

He also said the growth forecast of 7 per cent is "very realistic".

According to him, there are enough signs that manufacturing is in good health, but India has to be prepared to deal with El Nino and weather-related uncertainties.

"... The growth rate that we need to achieve in the fourth quarter is roughly at 4-4.1 per cent to be able to hit a 7 per cent real GDP growth.

"The trends that we have in terms of high frequency data for 2022-23 for fourth quarter do indicate that achieving that growth rate in Q4 is well within the realm of possibility and therefore the 7 per cent real GDP growth estimate for 2022-23 is very realistic," Nageswaran told reporters.

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In the current fiscal, the Indian economy grew 19.5 per cent and 23.9 per cent in June and September quarters, respectively.

The growth slowed to 4.4 per cent in the October-December quarter, mainly due to a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday.

The manufacturing sector's output, as per the gross value added in the third quarter of this fiscal, contracted 1.1 per cent compared to a growth of 1.3 per cent in the year-ago period.

Nageswaran, however, said, "manufacturing sector is in good health. Core sector data and high frequency indicators show continued growth momentum".

The Finance Ministry's Economic Survey has projected economic growth to be 6.5 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal beginning April 2023.

Downside risks dominates the 6.5 per cent growth forecast for next fiscal, he said, adding "no big ticket shock is expected in the next fiscal".

Nageswaran also said the merchandise exports of goods and services is expected to be USD 750 billion in the current fiscal, up from USD 680 billion the last financial year. 

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