The US meteorological agency has predicted El Nino conditions forming in the summer this year. This could impact the monsoon season which important for both Kharif and Rabi crops. 

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A US government weather forecaster said on Thursday that La Nina is over and that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are anticipated to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer of 2023, with El Nino possibly developing during the summer and lasting into the fall. This is for the third month in a row. 
"A weak monsoon – which has been observed in previous El Niño years - could lead to lower production of rice not only in India but across Southeast Asia," said Mark Brusberg, chief meteorologist at the US Department of Agriculture. 

Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are exceptionally frigid during the La Nina weather trend. The US forecaster noted that there was a more than 50 per cent possibility that the El Nino weather pattern will manifest itself by July, August and September, as certain regions prepared for a decline in agricultural production. 

The El Nino phenomenon causes the eastern and central Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures to increase, which can occasionally result in crop damage, flash floods, or fires. 

What are El Nino and La Nina? 

Trade winds sweep west along the equator in the Pacific Ocean under typical conditions, carrying warm water from South America towards Asia. Upwelling is the process by which cold water rises from the deep to replace that warm water. These typical conditions are disrupted by the opposing climate patterns of El Nino and La Nina. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is the name given to these events by scientists. 

Both El Nino and La Nina have the potential to affect weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economics on a global scale. El Nino and La Nina episodes normally last 9-12 months, but can occasionally last for years also. In general, El Nino and La Nina events happen every 2-7 years, but they don't always happen at the same time. El Nino typically happens more frequently than La Nina. 

How La Nina and El Nino impact Indian agricultural system? 

The intensity and volume of the monsoons, as well as the amount of precipitation, greatly influence the Indian agricultural system. La Nina conditions are extremely beneficial for Indian agriculture and the country's economy. However, a La Nina impact will deliver enough precipitation in India, directly increasing the agricultural output. 

On the other hand, in some places, frequent heavy rain can lead to flooding, which harms both the economy and the lives of the people. The greater farm outputs will accelerate the nation's economic development as well. 

Meanwhile, El Nino results in warm weather over the Indian subcontinent in the winter and dry, insufficient monsoons in the summer. Therefore, it impacts agriculture and causes a draught-like scenario. El Nino conditions are very detrimental to crops like groundnut, maize, guar, castor, moong, tur and many others.