Note ban may have affected current account deficit, says SBI Research

SBI Research has attributed the lower outward remittances and massive jump in travel receipts, which bumped up the December quarter CAD, to the note ban impact that dominated the review period.

"There are two distinct trends in the current account deficit (CAD) data print -- lower outward remittances and higher travel receipts -- and this could be attributed to note ban," SBI Research said in a weekend note.

The upward revision in services exports is one of the main reasons in containing CAD, says the report.

The rise in services export is mainly due to a rise in net travel balances, which grew by a massive 146% to USD 2,476 million in Q3, when the demonetisation was announced, it said. The increase in net travel balances can be largely attributed to 73% quarter-on-quarter growth in personal travel, it further said.

"Net travel has registered the incremental increase of USD 1,469 million in the quarter, which is an all-time high (at least since 2000-01)," the report said.

"We believe, people travelling to the country during this time may have bought in more dollars/old currencies, thereby getting reflected in travel receipts during this period," it said.

On demonetisation causing lower outward remittances, the report said outflows through the liberalised remittance scheme (LRS) that was showing a steep jump in the beginning of 2016 and possibly leading to a decline in domestic deposits, is now tapering off sharply.

Interestingly, in the note ban quarter, the growth rate of inward remittance slipped to 56% from a high of 342% in the preceding quarter.

"Now, whether this is due to increased apprehension on the part of public regarding tighter norms for unaccounted money or something else is entirely a matter of debate and conjecture," the report said.